2016 United States presidential election in South Carolina

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2016 United States presidential election in South Carolina

← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 →
Turnout67.86%[1] Decrease
  Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg Hillary Clinton by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton
Party Republican Democratic
Home state New York New York
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine
Electoral vote 9 0
Popular vote 1,155,389 855,373
Percentage 54.94% 40.67%

South Carolina Presidential Election Results 2016.svg
County results
Trump:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Clinton:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Treemap of the popular vote by county.

The 2016 United States presidential election was held on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 General Election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. South Carolina voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her running mate, Virginia Senator Tim Kaine.

On February 20 and 27, 2016, in the presidential primaries, South Carolina voters expressed their preferences for the Republican and Democratic parties' respective nominees for president. Registered members of each party could only vote in their party's primary, while voters who were unaffiliated could choose any one primary in which to vote.

Out of 3.12 million registered voters, 2.10 million voted, a turnout of 67.86%.[1]

Donald Trump continued the Republican tradition in South Carolina, carrying the state with 54.9% of the vote. Hillary Clinton received 40.7% of the vote, underperforming Obama by about 4 percent. [2]

Republicans have only lost South Carolina once since the assassination of John F. Kennedy, in 1976 (by a double-digit percentage margin).

Trump became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Charleston County since Herbert Hoover in 1928.

Background[edit]

The former President of the United States, Barack Obama, a Democrat and former U.S. Senator from Illinois, was first elected president in the 2008 election, running with former Senator Joe Biden of Delaware. Defeating the Republican nominee, Senator John McCain of Arizona, with 52.9% of the popular vote and 68% of the electoral vote,[3][4] Obama succeeded two-term Republican President George W. Bush, the former Governor of Texas. Obama and Biden were reelected in the 2012 presidential election, defeating former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney with 51.1% of the popular vote and 61.7% of electoral votes.[5] Although Barack Obama's approval rating in the RealClearPolitics poll tracking average remained between 40 and 50 percent for most of his second term, it has experienced a surge in early 2016 and reached its highest point since 2012 during June of that year.[6][7] Analyst Nate Cohn has noted that a strong approval rating for President Obama would equate to a strong performance for the Democratic candidate, and vice versa.[8]

Following his second term, President Obama was not eligible for another reelection. In October 2015, Obama's running-mate and two-term Vice President Biden decided not to enter the race for the Democratic presidential nomination either.[9] With their terms expiring on January 20, 2017, the electorate was asked to elect a new president, the 45th president and 48th vice president of the United States, respectively.

Political landscape in South Carolina[edit]

The Republican party's ticket has carried South Carolina in every election since 1980, and with the exception of Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale's carrying the state in 1976, the Republicans have carried the state since 1964. In the 2012 election, Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan defeated Democrats Barack Obama and Joe Biden by a margin of 54% to 44%; the state has not had a Democratic Senator since Ernest Hollings retired in 2005. The state has had a Republican majority in the United States House of Representatives since the so-called "Republican Revolution" of 1994. However, some have suggested that South Carolina may become a battleground state in this election cycle because of Clinton's lead in the national polling.[10] A poll released on August 10 by Public Policy Polling had Trump leading Clinton by a margin of only 2 points,[10] and an internal poll commissioned for the South Carolina Democratic Party had the race tied;[11] this led Larry Sabato's political prediction website Sabato's Crystal Ball to move the rating of the South Carolina contest from "Safe Republican" to "Likely Republican" on August 18.[12]

Primary elections[edit]

Democratic primary[edit]

South Carolina Democratic primary, 2016

← 2012 February 27, 2016 (2016-02-27) 2020 →
  Hillary Clinton by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg Bernie Sanders September 2015 cropped.jpg
Candidate Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
Home state New York Vermont
Delegate count 39 14
Popular vote 272,379 96,498
Percentage 73.44% 26.02%

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary Election Results by County, 2016.svg
South Carolina results by county
  Hillary Clinton

The 59 delegates for the Democratic National Convention from South Carolina are allocated in this way. There are 53 pledged delegates and 6 unpledged delegates. For the pledged delegates, each district gets 5 delegates that are allocated proportionally. There are then 18 at-large delegates awarded proportionally.[13]

South Carolina Democratic primary, February 27, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 272,379 73.44% 39 5 44
Bernie Sanders 96,498 26.02% 14 0 14
Willie Wilson 1,314 0.35%
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 713 0.19%
Uncommitted 0 1 1
Total votes 370,904 100% 53 6 59
Sources: The Green Papers, South Carolina State Election Commission

Republican primary[edit]

South Carolina Republican primary, 2016

← 2012 February 20, 2016 (2016-02-20) 2020 →
  Donald Trump August 19, 2015 (cropped).jpg Marco Rubio, Official Portrait, 112th Congress.jpg Ted Cruz, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped 2).jpg
Candidate Donald Trump Marco Rubio Ted Cruz
Home state New York Florida Texas
Delegate count 50 0 0
Popular vote 240,882 166,565 165,417
Percentage 32.51% 22.48% 22.33%

  Jeb Bush at Southern Republican Leadership Conference May 2015 by Vadon 02.jpg Governor John Kasich.jpg Ben Carson by Skidmore with lighting correction.jpg
Candidate Jeb Bush John Kasich Ben Carson
Home state Florida Ohio Maryland
Delegate count 0 0 0
Popular vote 58,056 56,410 53,551
Percentage 7.84% 7.61% 7.23%

South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary Election Results by County, 2016.svg
South Carolina results by county
  Donald Trump
  Marco Rubio

Delegates from South Carolina to the Republican National Convention are awarded in this way. 29 delegates are awarded to the candidate that wins the plurality of the vote in the South Carolina primary. The remaining 21 delegates are allocated by giving the winner of each of the seven congressional districts 3 delegates. [14]

South Carolina Republican primary, February 20, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 240,882 32.51% 50 0 50
Marco Rubio 166,565 22.48% 0 0 0
Ted Cruz 165,417 22.33% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush 58,056 7.84% 0 0 0
John Kasich 56,410 7.61% 0 0 0
Ben Carson 53,551 7.23% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 0 0 0
Rand Paul (withdrawn) 0 0 0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) 0 0 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 0 0 0
Jim Gilmore (withdrawn) 0 0 0
George Pataki (withdrawn) 0 0 0
Lindsey Graham (withdrawn) 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 740,881 100.00% 50 0 50
Source: The Green Papers

Green state convention[edit]

On April 30, the Green Party of South Carolina held its state convention; the public was welcome, but only members and delegates were eligible to vote.[15]

On April 30, it was announced that William Kreml had won the primary.

South Carolina Green Party presidential convention, April 17, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage National delegates
William Kreml - - 5
Jill Stein - - 3
Sedinam Kinamo Christin Moyowasifza Curry - - -
Darryl Cherney - - -
Kent Mesplay - - -
Total - 100.00% 8

Polling[edit]

General election[edit]

Predictions[edit]

  1. CNN: Solid Trump[16]
  2. Cook Political Report: Likely Trump[17]
  3. Electoral-vote.com: Leans Trump[18]
  4. Los Angeles Times: Solid Trump[19]
  5. NBC: Leans Trump[20]
  6. RealClearPolitics: Leans Trump[21]
  7. Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Trump[22]

Results[edit]

United States presidential election in South Carolina, 2016
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican Donald Trump Mike Pence 1,155,389 54.94% 9
Democratic Hillary Clinton Tim Kaine 855,373 40.67% 0
Libertarian Gary Johnson Bill Weld 49,204 2.34% 0
Independence Evan McMullin Nathan Johnson 21,016 1.00% 0
Green Jill Stein Ajamu Baraka 13,034 0.62% 0
Constitution Darrell Castle Scott Bradley 5,765 0.27% 0
American (South Carolina)[23] Peter Skewes Michael Lacy 3,246 0.15% 0
Totals 2,103,027 100.00% 9

By congressional district[edit]

Trump won 6 of the 7 congressional districts

District Trump Clinton Representative
1st 53% 41% Mark Sanford
2nd 57% 38% Joe Wilson
3rd 67% 29% Jeff Duncan
4th 60% 34% Trey Gowdy
5th 57% 39% Mick Mulvaney
6th 30% 67% Jim Clyburn
7th 58% 39% Tom Rice

By county[edit]

County Clinton% Clinton# Trump% Trump# Others% Others# Total
Abbeville 34.72% 3,741 62.77% 6,763 2.52% 271 10,775
Aiken 34.01% 25,455 61.49% 46,025 4.50% 3,371 74,851
Allendale 76.14% 2,735 21.97% 789 1.89% 68 3,592
Anderson 26.21% 21,097 69.87% 56,232 3.92% 3,154 80,483
Bamberg 62.73% 3,898 35.47% 2,204 1.80% 112 6,214
Barnwell 46.39% 4,400 51.54% 4,889 2.07% 196 9,485
Beaufort 40.93% 32,138 54.66% 42,922 4.41% 3,464 78,524
Berkeley 38.61% 30,705 56.07% 44,587 5.31% 4,225 79,517
Calhoun 47.33% 3,573 50.17% 3,787 2.50% 189 7,549
Charleston 50.64% 89,299 42.78% 75,443 6.58% 11,603 176,345
Cherokee 28.00% 6,092 69.70% 15,167 2.30% 500 21,759
Chester 46.36% 6,579 51.19% 7,265 2.45% 348 14,192
Chesterfield 41.36% 6,858 56.16% 9,312 2.48% 411 16,581
Clarendon 50.22% 7,732 47.98% 7,386 1.80% 277 15,395
Colleton 44.21% 7,627 52.70% 9,091 3.09% 533 17,251
Darlington 46.80% 13,888 50.51% 14,989 2.69% 797 29,674
Dillon 49.87% 5,834 48.19% 5,637 1.94% 227 11,698
Dorchester 38.45% 24,055 55.92% 34,987 5.63% 3,525 62,567
Edgefield 38.57% 4,491 58.76% 6,842 2.67% 311 11,644
Fairfield 61.64% 6,945 35.74% 4,027 2.62% 295 11,267
Florence 46.11% 26,710 51.05% 29,573 2.84% 1,648 57,931
Georgetown 42.04% 13,310 54.93% 17,389 3.03% 958 31,657
Greenville 34.62% 74,483 59.41% 127,832 5.97% 12,850 215,165
Greenwood 37.24% 10,711 58.97% 16,961 3.79% 1,091 28,763
Hampton 58.71% 5,170 39.61% 3,488 1.68% 148 8,806
Horry 29.65% 39,410 67.17% 89,288 3.18% 4,222 132,920
Jasper 52.12% 5,956 45.39% 5,187 2.49% 284 11,427
Kershaw 35.63% 10,330 60.50% 17,542 3.87% 1,123 28,995
Lancaster 35.47% 13,812 60.91% 23,719 3.61% 1,407 38,938
Laurens 33.46% 8,889 63.30% 16,816 3.24% 861 26,566
Lee 63.74% 5,199 34.37% 2,803 1.89% 154 8,156
Lexington 28.86% 35,230 65.55% 80,026 5.60% 6,837 122,093
Marion 60.02% 8,569 38.14%% 5,444 1.84% 263 14,276
Marlboro 57.31% 5,954 41.07% 4,267 1.62% 168 10,389
McCormick 47.53% 2,479 50.84% 2,652 1.63% 85 5,216
Newberry 36.99% 6,217 59.60% 10,017 3.41% 573 16,807
Oconee 23.78% 7,998 71.88% 24,178 4.34% 1,459 33,635
Orangeburg 67.64% 26,318 30.66% 11,931 1.70% 661 38,910
Pickens 21.11% 10,354 73.88% 36,236 5.01% 2,459 49,049
Richland 64.01% 108,000 31.10% 52,469 4.89% 8,253 168,722
Saluda 32.85% 2,813 64.53% 5,526 2.63% 225 8,564
Spartanburg 33.03% 39,997 62.99% 76,277 3.98% 4,816 121,090
Sumter 54.55% 24,047 42.52% 18,745 2.94% 1,294 44,086
Union 39.11% 4,729 58.39% 7,061 2.50% 302 12,092
Williamsburg 66.12% 9,953 32.31% 4,864 1.57% 237 15,054
York 36.37% 41,593 58.37% 66,754 5.26% 6,010 114,357

Counties that swung from Democratic to Republican[edit]

Electors[edit]

Technically the voters of South Carolina cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. South Carolina is allocated 9 electors because it has 7 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 9 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 9 electoral votes, their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 19, 2016, to cast their votes for president and vice president; the Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 9 were pledged for Trump/Pence.

  • Glenn McCall
  • Matt Moore
  • Terry Hardesty
  • Jim Ulmer
  • Brenda Bedenbaugh
  • Bill Conley
  • Shery Smith
  • Moye Graham
  • Jerry Rovner[24]

References[edit]

  1. ^ a b "South Carolina Voter Registration Demographics". scvotes.org. Retrieved 13 June 2017.
  2. ^ "South Carolina Results". New York Times. Retrieved 13 June 2017.
  3. ^ "United States House of Representatives floor summary for Jan 8, 2009". Clerk.house.gov. Archived from the original on April 2, 2012. Retrieved January 30, 2009.
  4. ^ "Federal elections 2008" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. Retrieved May 11, 2015.
  5. ^ "President Map". The New York Times. November 29, 2012. Retrieved May 11, 2015.
  6. ^ "Election Other – President Obama Job Approval". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved December 24, 2015.
  7. ^ Byrnes, Jesse (2016-06-15). "Poll: Obama approval rating highest since 2012". TheHill. Retrieved 2016-06-19.
  8. ^ Cohn, Nate (2015-01-19). "What a Rise in Obama's Approval Rating Means for 2016". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2016-06-19.
  9. ^ "Joe Biden Decides Not to Enter Presidential Race". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved October 21, 2015.
  10. ^ a b "Clinton/Trump Race Tight in South Carolina". Public Policy Polling. Public Policy Polling. Archived from the original on 15 August 2016. Retrieved 24 August 2016.
  11. ^ Master, Cyra. "Poll: Clinton tied with Trump in SC". The Hill. Capitol Hill Publishing Corp. Retrieved 24 August 2016.
  12. ^ Kondik, Kyle; Sabato, Larry; Skelley, Geoffrey. "Clinton Rises to 348 Electoral Votes, Trump Drops to 190". Sabato's Crystal Ball. University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved 24 August 2016.
  13. ^ "South Carolina Democratic Delegation 2016". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved 2017-02-22.
  14. ^ Carrejo, Cate. "Is The South Carolina Primary Winner Take All? There's A Lot At Stake In The Palmetto State". Retrieved 2017-02-22.
  15. ^ "2016 South Carolina Green Party state convention". South Carolina Green Party. 2016-03-10. Retrieved 2016-03-12.
  16. ^ Chalian, David (4 November 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
  17. ^ "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. 7 November 2016. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
  18. ^ "2016 Predicted Electoral Map". Electoral-vote.com. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
  19. ^ "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. 6 November 2016. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
  20. ^ Todd, Chuck (7 November 2016). "NBC's final battleground map shows a lead for Clinton". NBC News. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
  21. ^ "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
  22. ^ Sabato, Larry (7 November 2016). "The Crystal Ball's 2016 Electoral College ratings". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
  23. ^ https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
  24. ^ "Press Release: SCGOP selects Electoral College Members". 23 August 2016. Archived from the original on 11 November 2016. Retrieved 13 September 2017.

External links[edit]