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Bayesian probability

Bayesian probability is an interpretation of the concept of probability, in which, instead of frequency or propensity of some phenomenon, probability is interpreted as reasonable expectation representing a state of knowledge or as quantification of a personal belief. The Bayesian interpretation of probability can be seen as an extension of propositional logic that enables reasoning with hypotheses, to say, with propositions whose truth or falsity is unknown. In the Bayesian view, a probability is assigned to a hypothesis, whereas under frequentist inference, a hypothesis is tested without being assigned a probability. Bayesian probability belongs to the category of evidential probabilities. This, in turn, is updated to a posterior probability in the light of new, relevant data; the Bayesian interpretation provides a standard set of procedures and formulae to perform this calculation. The term Bayesian derives from the 18th century mathematician and theologian Thomas Bayes, who provided the first mathematical treatment of a non-trivial problem of statistical data analysis using what is now known as Bayesian inference.

Mathematician Pierre-Simon Laplace pioneered and popularised what is now called Bayesian probability. Bayesian methods are characterized by concepts and procedures as follows: The use of random variables, or more unknown quantities, to model all sources of uncertainty in statistical models including uncertainty resulting from lack of information; the need to determine the prior probability distribution taking into account the available information. The sequential use of Bayes' formula: when more data become available, calculate the posterior distribution using Bayes' formula. While for the frequentist, a hypothesis is a proposition so that the frequentist probability of a hypothesis is either 0 or 1, in Bayesian statistics, the probability that can be assigned to a hypothesis can be in a range from 0 to 1 if the truth value is uncertain. Broadly speaking, there are two interpretations on Bayesian probability. For objectivists, interpreting probability as extension of logic, probability quantifies the reasonable expectation everyone sharing the same knowledge should share in accordance with the rules of Bayesian statistics, which can be justified by Cox's theorem.

For subjectivists, probability corresponds to a personal belief. Rationality and coherence allow for substantial variation within the constraints they pose; the objective and subjective variants of Bayesian probability differ in their interpretation and construction of the prior probability. The term Bayesian derives from Thomas Bayes, who proved a special case of what is now called Bayes' theorem in a paper titled "An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances". In that special case, the prior and posterior distributions were beta distributions and the data came from Bernoulli trials, it was Pierre-Simon Laplace who introduced a general version of the theorem and used it to approach problems in celestial mechanics, medical statistics and jurisprudence. Early Bayesian inference, which used uniform priors following Laplace's principle of insufficient reason, was called "inverse probability". After the 1920s, "inverse probability" was supplanted by a collection of methods that came to be called frequentist statistics.

In the 20th century, the ideas of Laplace developed in two directions, giving rise to objective and subjective currents in Bayesian practice. Harold Jeffreys' Theory of Probability played an important role in the revival of the Bayesian view of probability, followed by works by Abraham Wald and Leonard J. Savage; the adjective Bayesian. In the objectivist stream, the statistical analysis depends on only the model assumed and the data analysed. No subjective decisions need to be involved. In contrast, "subjectivist" statisticians deny the possibility of objective analysis for the general case. In the 1980s, there was a dramatic growth in research and applications of Bayesian methods attributed to the discovery of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and the consequent removal of many of the computational problems, to an increasing interest in nonstandard, complex applications. While frequentist statistics remains strong, Bayesian methods are accepted and used, e.g. in the field of machine learning.

The use of Bayesian probabilities as the basis of Bayesian inference has been supported by several arguments, such as Cox axioms, the Dutch book argument, arguments based on decision theory and de Finetti's theorem. Richard T. Cox showed that Bayesian updating follows from several axioms, including two functional equations and a hypothesis of differentiability; the assumption of differentiability or continuity is controversial. Other axiomatizations have been suggested by various authors with the purpose of making the theory more rigorous; the Dutch book argument was proposed by de Finetti. A Dutch book is made when a clever gambler places a set of bets that guarantee a profit

Timothy Botts

Timothy Botts is an artist who has a focus of calligraphy. He was born in Pennsylvania and resides in Glen Ellyn, Illinois, he is well known for his transformation of bible verses into pieces art. Timothy has published books, released single prints, been featured in museums, as well as having features within churches. Through years of experience, Timothy experiments with new styles and typefaces to represent what art he makes. Timothy is the father of three children; as a child, Botts felt like an outcast. This inspiration was from his first-grade teacher, Mrs. Stanton, located in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. Mrs. Stanton recognized the artistic ability that Timothy had faith in it, she continued as Timothy's art teacher throughout his elementary years and followed him into high school. During his sixth-grade year, Botts had to do a poster project for school fair. For his project, he used a lettering book that had all different lettering styles that piqued his interest. In the following year, Timothy attended junior high.

Tim and Nancy went separate ways before going off to college. After attending high school, he was admitted and attended Carnegie Mellon University where he was still pursuing his art. During his freshman year at Carnegie Mellon, he was first introduced to calligraphy after having needed to take it for his graphic design major. Right after college and Nancy married. Rather than being drafted to Vietnam and Nancy were sent to Japan for three years where the two taught the Japanese some conversational English and where Botts took Japanese brush writing for five weeks. Throughout Timothy's career, he has formed his own font, or what he refers to as a visual language with the use of colors, letter styles, letter paths, contrast and repetition. One of his daughters, along with her husband, had adopted three black children which gave Timothy more reason to create a new visual language that fit with African culture. Timothy used a mixture of Runes styled calligraphy as well as ancient African scripts he came across from some research of Saki Mafundikwa.

He included 19th century American adaptations of Black Letter, early 20th century Bookhand, as well as urban graffiti. Timothy has been given multitude of opportunities to draw on walls of churches and other places that inhabit places of worship with selected murals of scriptures that can be found at Good Shepard Lutheran, Cornerstone Church, Naperville Bible Church, Trinity Church of the Nazarene, St. Francis House High School in Wheaton and Advocate Good Samaritan Hospital in Downers Grove. Timothy's art can be found in many formats other than walls which can be found in provided publishings. Timothy's past teacher has inspired him to return the instruct others in calligraphy. Timothy's teaching can be found at the College of Du Page and an intermediate class at The Fine Line in St. Charles. You can find Timothy on one of the six weekends workshops he hosts in other parts of the country or his workshop he hosts at the International Calligraphy Convention.. Wind Songs. Tyndale House Publishers.

ISBN 9780842382526. Messiah. Tyndlae House Publishers. ISBN 9780842342353. Horizons: Exploring Creations. Zondervan. ISBN 978-0310576709. Proverbs. Tyndlae House Publishers. ISBN 978-0842350341. Joy in the Journey. Tyndale House Publishers. ISBN 978-0785277897; the Book of Psalms. Tyndale House Publishers. ISBN 978-0842349550. Door Posts. Tyndlae House Publishers. ISBN 978-0842305952. Best- Loved Bible Verses. Tyndale House Publishers. ISBN 978-0842335225; the Holy Bible. Tyndale House Publishers. ISBN 978-0842337144. Portraits of the Word: Great Verses of the Bible in Expressive Calligraphy. Tyndale House Publishers. ISBN 978-0842355353. Bound for Glory. Tyndale House Publishers. ISBN 978-1414354538 The Purchase Award from Chicago's Newberry Library. Timothy Botts - calligraphy merchandise Timothy Botts - Eyekons Gallery Timothy Botts - overview

Itzan

Itzan is a Maya archaeological site located in the municipality of La Libertad in the Petén Department of Guatemala. Various small structures at the site were destroyed in the 1980s during oil exploration activities by Sonpetrol and Basic Resources Ltd, prompting rescue excavations by archaeologists. In spite of its small size, the site appears to have been the most politically important centre in its area, as evidenced by its unusually large quantity of monuments and the size of its major architecture; the site was first occupied in the Middle Preclassic, with occupation continuing to the Late Classic. The ruins are 25 kilometres northwest of the Dos Pilas archaeological site on the bank of a minor tributary of the Pasion River; the city was on a natural hilltop surrounded by seasonal swamps. The tributary of the Pasion River has its origin in Laguna Itzan, a small lake to the east of the site. A spring to the west of the site appears to have been a permanent watersource for the city. Itzan is situated halfway between the Classic Period cities of Altar de Sacrificios and Seibal, is located about 14 kilometres northeast of the former.

The site is located 50 kilometres west of the modern town of Sayaxché and 8 kilometres north of the Pasion River. Itzan was continuously occupied from the Middle Preclassic through to the Late Classic, with much reduced activity during the Early Classic, with the latter period only being evidenced by a single burial accompanied by a ceramic plate. Hieroglyphic Stairway 2 at the Late Classic period kingdom of Dos Pilas records that in 652 AD the powerful city of Calakmul seized control of Itzan, Dos Pilas itself won a major victory over the city. Itzan may have gone to war against El Chorro. A noblewoman from Itzan became the main wife of B'alaj Chan K'awiil, a king of Dos Pilas, their son was Itzamnaaj Balam; the collapse of the aggressive Dos Pilas kingdom in the late 8th century AD benefited Itzan, which experienced a period of renewed activity. The site was discovered in February 1968 by Louisa Wheeler, two Peace Corps volunteers; the ruins were explored by archaeologists of the Ceibal Project in 1978, who only spent a few hours at the site.

Itzan was a small city but was considered by archaeologists to have characteristics that made excavation worthwhile. Initial investigations recorded a number of carved monuments and large structures, some standing up to 7 metres high; the site core was mapped in 1986, when archaeologists noted that a number of carved monuments had been damaged by looters and that some of the buildings had been cut by looters' trenches. Various monument pieces, cut by looters were transferred to the departmental capital Flores with the intention of moving them to Guatemala City; the centre of the site is grouped around the North and South Plazas, both of which are open plazas, the closed West and East Plazuelas which are enclosed by architecture. The site core includes a formal acropolis, large plazas and a large amount of stelae and altars, totalling at least 25 monuments, all of which have been moved from their original locations by looters in order to excavate below them. Most of these monuments were positioned in open plazas in front of the largest structures.

The remains of hieroglyphic texts were found associated with the North and South Stairways of the West Plaza. Much of the Late Classic period acropolis was built upon earlier Preclassic structures; the site periphery between 3.6 to 4 kilometres south of the site core included at least three groups of simple perishable Late Classic residential structures laid out around central patios, without being built upon platforms, suggesting that the population of the site was greater than thought based on the site's monumental architecture. The entire settled area of Itzan occupies a ridge in a strip about 300 metres wide by 7 kilometres long, with the site core being situated near the centre of this zone. A modern road cuts through the area of settlement. Stela 17 includes a hieroglyphic text that mentions lords of Itzan and of the nearby city of Altar de Sacrificios, it contains a section of damaged text that may indicate warfare between Itzan and the site of El Chorro. Stela 20 is fragmented. A large piece was found to the northwest of the acropolis

Nikolay Mikhailovich Volkov

Nikolay Mikhailovich Volkov is a Russian politician. Volkov was born in 1951 in the Shablykinsky district of the Oryol Region. In 1973, Volkov graduated from a civil engineer institute in Odessa. Volkov is the former governor of the Jewish Autonomous Oblast. Volkov is a member of Our Home Is Russia. Viktor Gozhy is the First vice-chairman of the Jewish Autonomous Oblast and next in the line of succession after Volkov. In 2006, Volkov met with an American Consul General, who met with representatives of the JAO's Jewish community and visited Birobidzhan Synagogue; the two men discussed the potential for cooperation between U. S. and JAO businessmen. In 1997, Governor Volkov stated that he wanted, "our Jewish community to have a permanent rabbi and a synagogue."Concerning the Jewish community of the oblast and the Birobidzhan Synagogue, Volkov has stated that he intends to, "support every valuable initiative maintained by our local Jewish organizations."In 2004, Volkov received an award for the category'Regional Leader' during the'Man of the Year 5764' Ceremony organized by the Federation of Jewish Communities of the CIS.

This award served as recognition for, "his initiative in the revival of Jewish life in Birobidzhan and in arranging the Jewish Autonomous Oblast's 70th anniversary celebrations." List of Jewish Autonomous Oblast Leaders

Meaningful play

Meaningful play are actions or activities built with either a designed or inherent intent, such as data collection or therapy. Meaning is defined as the underlying purpose of the topic or subject at hand, while play itself is defined as a range of voluntary, intrinsically motivated activities associated with pleasure and enjoyment. Inherent meaningful play would be defined as an activity where the purpose is built directly into the activity. An example of this is that sports have the inherent meaning of being fun and full of physical activity to promote wellness. Designed meaningful play is defined as an activity where another purpose is integrated into the activity, by the creator of the activity, to either acquire knowledge or promote another purpose within the activity. For example, games in developmental psychology have the designed meaning of gathering data about many functions such as how executive function develops; the designed meaning does not have to be built into the activity from the beginning.

In considering recess, it was created to give children time to exercise and socialize, but researchers at a time have inferred meaning from the activities that children participate in during this time, adding a designed meaning to the activity of recess. Meaningful play is discussed in the disciplines of psychology, education and law, it is utilized in the fields of video games. While there appears to be no exact moment when the term was created, it first started to appear in the field of video games with the book "rules of play", was further adapted into other fields such as psychology soon after with a modified definition. Meaningful play has become more influential over the years; as researchers discovered many of the various uses for play as well as discovered how many various forms of play there are. Advocates of meaningful play and play in general have voiced their recommendation that playing be placed above testing in young grades like kindergarten; as well there are studies branching out to different age groups seeing if meaningful play can help the elderly with cognitive and physical functioning.

While all play can be considered meaningful due to the inherent nature of play to have some sort of meaning of either competition or enjoyment, meaningful play is about the designed meaning taken from play. The field of psychology uses meaningful play in a large variety of ways; the most important way is for gathering data during research with children. This is considered basic research because it is done with the sole intent of gathering knowledge which could be applied. Other ways include playing during therapy; the experimental approach works quite well for the most common research participant but for children it can be more difficult to keep them interested in the task which allows more room for noise. This is due to the fact that children can become bored quickly with normal testing methods. Researchers, using meaningful play, can build experiments using various playful techniques so that the experimental method is fun and interactive for children, at the same time gathers data for the concept.

An example of an experiment designed to be as simple as possible for gathering data would be the Ainsworth Strange Situation task. However looking at a task that incorporates meaningful play, such as the switch task for children which incorporated a story for motivation to the children, interactions which the children could enjoy created the sense that the children were helping the characters accomplish a goal. Though it was presented as a game, the researchers were able to collect all the data required. Meaningful play, for use in data collection, has been used across every age group, from hide and seek games with infants, to block puzzles with children, to virtual reality games with young adults. Meaningful play goes further than just humans and can be used to train animals. In the psychology, meaningful play is used for extracting data from animals who are unable to verbally give us the meaning behind their actions. In university settings, environmental enrichment boxes for pigeons and other animals have the inherent meaning of allowing them exercise and mental stimulation.

This follows from the designed meaning of the enrichment boxes to keep the animals at mental peak and closer to a natural environment. The boxes are created to achieve this goal by following several strict guidelines. Meaningful play is a bit more difficult because on animals with lower cognitive skills it is hard to actual create a game for them to play, yet researchers have used techniques such as operant boxes to make it more interactive and motivating. Meaningful play, in the form of play therapy, has been used to help adults, it can involve various methods from using dolls to role-playing, all of which help to bring the participant into a state of mind where they feel comfortable discussing or overcoming the problem they are experiencing. When participants of this kind of therapy use playing, in any form, it helps them to overcome whatever is causing their negative state in a safe and secure environment, they are able to detach themselves and push their emotions and states onto the role they are taking or the dolls they are using.

Critics argue play therapy because it can be seen as a form of temporary regression where adults act like children, playing games to overcome problems. While there are notable cases of regression in adults and children regressing further, there has been no link made of any sort between play therapy and regression

Kingsbury County, South Dakota

Kingsbury County is a county in the U. S. state of South Dakota. As of the 2010 census, the population was 5,148, its county seat is De Smet. The county was created in 1873, was organized in 1880, it was named for brothers George W. and T. A. Kingsbury, descendants of the colonial English Kingsbury family in Boston, Massachusetts, they were prominently involved in the affairs of Dakota Territory and served as elected members of several Territorial Legislatures. The terrain of Kingsbury County consists of low rolling hills; the central and east portions of the county hold numerous ponds. The land is devoted to agriculture; the terrain slopes to the SW, the highest point is near the midpoint of the east boundary line, at 1,857' ASL. The county has a total area of 864 square miles, of which 832 square miles is land and 3.6 square miles is water. U. S. Highway 14 U. S. Highway 81 South Dakota Highway 25 Arnold State Public Shooting Area Industrialization of agriculture and the attraction of urban areas have contributed to the decline in population of Kingsbury County, similar to what has occurred in other Plains rural areas.

In 2010 it had less than half the population of its peak in 1930, before the Dust Bowl and the Great Depression. As of the 2000 United States Census, there were 5,815 people, 2,406 households, 1,592 families in the county; the population density was 7 people per square mile. There were 2,724 housing units at an average density of 3 per square mile; the racial makeup of the county was 98.54% White, 0.05% Black or African American, 0.40% Native American, 0.29% Asian, 0.19% from other races, 0.53% from two or more races. 0.69 % of the population were Latino of any race. 36.2 % were of 22.5 % Norwegian, 8.4 % Danish, 7.0 % American and 5.9 % Irish ancestry. There were 2,406 households out of which 27.90% had children under the age of 18 living with them, 59.00% were married couples living together, 4.40% had a female householder with no husband present, 33.80% were non-families. 31.50% of all households were made up of individuals and 17.80% had someone living alone, 65 years of age or older. The average household size was 2.34 and the average family size was 2.95.

The county population contained 24.50% under the age of 18, 6.10% from 18 to 24, 22.90% from 25 to 44, 22.40% from 45 to 64, 24.20% who were 65 years of age or older. The median age was 43 years. For every 100 females there were 96.30 males. For every 100 females age 18 and over, there were 95.90 males. The median income for a household in the county was $31,262, the median income for a family was $41,057. Males had a median income of $26,681 versus $19,174 for females; the per capita income for the county was $16,522. About 7.00% of families and 10.00% of the population were below the poverty line, including 13.50% of those under age 18 and 11.10% of those age 65 or over. As of the 2010 United States Census, there were 5,148 people, 2,222 households, 1,418 families in the county; the population density was 6.2 inhabitants per square mile. There were 2,720 housing units at an average density of 3.3 per square mile. The racial makeup of the county was 98.1% white, 0.5% American Indian, 0.3% Asian, 0.1% black or African American, 0.3% from other races, 0.8% from two or more races.

Those of Hispanic or Latino origin made up 1.4% of the population. In terms of European ancestry, 42.8% were German, 25.5% were Norwegian, 10.9% were Danish, 9.6% were Irish, 7.2% were English, 3.5% were American. Of the 2,222 households, 24.3% had children under the age of 18 living with them, 55.6% were married couples living together, 5.0% had a female householder with no husband present, 36.2% were non-families, 32.2% of all households were made up of individuals. The average household size was 2.23 and the average family size was 2.81. The median age was 47.1 years. The median income for a household in the county was $44,948 and the median income for a family was $56,925. Males had a median income of $35,585 versus $28,141 for females; the per capita income for the county was $24,660. About 7.0% of families and 9.2% of the population were below the poverty line, including 8.8% of those under age 18 and 10.8% of those age 65 or over. Esmond Osceola Spring Lake Colony Manchester Harvey Dunn - painter and professor of Fine Arts Laura Ingalls Wilder - author Kingsbury County voters have been reliably Republican for decades.

In only two national elections since 1932 has the county selected the Democratic Party candidate. National Register of Historic Places listings in Kingsbury County, South Dakota Official website Johnson, Lyle R. "Decades of Drought: A Year by Year-by-Year Account of Weather-Related Changes in 1930s Kingsbury County," South Dakota History 43, 218–44