A heuristic technique, or a heuristic, is any approach to problem solving or self-discovery that employs a practical method, not guaranteed to be optimal, perfect or rational, but, sufficient for reaching an immediate, short-term goal. Where finding an optimal solution is impossible or impractical, heuristic methods can be used to speed up the process of finding a satisfactory solution. Heuristics can be mental shortcuts. Examples that employ heuristics include using trial and error, a rule of thumb, an educated guess, an intuitive judgment, a guesstimate, profiling, or common sense. Heuristics are the strategies derived from previous experiences with similar problems; these strategies depend on using accessible, though loosely applicable, information to control problem solving in human beings and abstract issues. The most fundamental heuristic is trial and error, which can be used in everything from matching nuts and bolts to finding the values of variables in algebra problems. In mathematics, some common heuristics involve the use of visual representations, additional assumptions, forward/backward reasoning and simplification.
Here are a few used heuristics from George Pólya's 1945 book, How to Solve It: If you are having difficulty understanding a problem, try drawing a picture. If you can't find a solution, try assuming that you have a solution and seeing what you can derive from that. If the problem is abstract, try examining a concrete example. Try solving a more general problem first. In psychology, heuristics are simple, efficient rules, learned or inculcated by evolutionary processes, that have been proposed to explain how people make decisions, come to judgments, solve problems when facing complex problems or incomplete information. Researchers test; these rules work well under most circumstances, but in certain cases can lead to systematic errors or cognitive biases. The study of heuristics in human decision-making was developed in the 1970s and 80s by psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, although the concept was introduced by Nobel laureate Herbert A. Simon. Simon's original, primary object of research was problem solving which showed that we operate within what he calls bounded rationality.
He coined the term "satisficing", which denotes the situation where people seek solutions or accept choices or judgments that are "good enough" for their purposes, but which could be optimized. Rudolf Groner analyzed the history of heuristics from its roots in ancient Greece up to contemporary work in cognitive psychology and artificial intelligence, proposed a cognitive style "heuristic versus algorithmic thinking" which can be assessed by means of a validated questionnaire. Gerd Gigerenzer and his research group argued that models of heuristics need to be formal to allow for predictions of behavior that can be tested, they study the fast and frugal heuristics in the "adaptive toolbox" of individuals or institutions, the ecological rationality of these heuristics, that is, the conditions under which a given heuristic is to be successful. The descriptive study of the "adaptive toolbox" is done by observation and experiment, the prescriptive study of the ecological rationality requires mathematical analysis and computer simulation.
Heuristics – such as the recognition heuristic, the take-the-best heuristic, fast-and-frugal trees – have been shown to be effective in predictions in situations of uncertainty. It is said that heuristics trade accuracy for effort but this is only the case in situations of risk. Risk refers to situations where their outcomes and probabilities are known. In the absence of this information, under uncertainty, heuristics can achieve higher accuracy with lower effort; this finding, known as a less-is-more effect, would not have been found without formal models. The valuable insight of this program is that heuristics are effective not despite of their simplicity — but because of it. Furthermore and Wolfgang Gaissmaier found that both individuals and organizations rely on heuristics in an adaptive way. Heuristics, through greater refinement and research, have begun to be applied to other theories, or be explained by them. For example: the cognitive-experiential self-theory is an adaptive view of heuristic processing.
CEST breaks down two systems that process information. At some times speaking, individuals consider issues rationally, logically, deliberately and verbally. On other occasions, individuals consider issues intuitively, effortlessly and emotionally. From this perspective, heuristics are part of a larger experiential processing system, adaptive, but vulnerable to error in situations that require logical analysis. In 2002, Daniel Kahneman and Shane Frederick proposed that cognitive heuristics work by a process called attribute substitution, which happens without conscious awareness. According to this theory, when somebody makes a judgment, computationally complex, a rather easier calculated "heuristic attribute" is substituted. In effect, a cognitively difficult problem is dealt with by answering a rather simpler problem, without being aware of this happening; this theory explains cases. Heuristics can be considered to reduce the complexity of clinical judgments in health care. Affect heuristic Anchoring and adjustment – Describes the common human tendency to rely more on the fi
The Hōrai Bridge is a wooden pedestrian bridge over the Ōi River located in the city of Shimada, Shizuoka Prefecture, Japan. It was constructed in 1879 With a length of 897.422 metres, the bridge was registered in The Guinness Book of Records as the longest wooden walking bridge in the world in 1997. The Hōrai Bridge is on the Edo period route of the Tōkaidō; the Tokugawa shogunate expressly forbid the construction of any bridge or ferry service over the Ōi River for defensive purposes, forcing travelers to wade across its shallows. However, whenever the river flooded due to strong or long rains, crossing the river was impossible. During period of long rains, visitors were sometimes forced to stay at Shimada-juku or Kanaya-juku, sometimes for several days. Following the Meiji restoration, former samurai loyal to the Tokugawa clan settled in the Makinohara area and began to develop tea plantations. To facilitate crossing the river, this bridge was built in 1879. In 1965 its wooden pilings were replaced by concrete.
The SPD Bavaria is the Bavarian State Association of the Social Democratic Party of Germany. In February 2018, it was the second largest state association of a party in Bavaria with 62,122 members; the chairwoman is Natascha Kohnen, Secretary General is Uli Grötsch. The SPD Bavaria has a rich history, which dates back to 1866, when a workers' education club in Nuremberg was founded as the first Social Democratic institution. In 1881, Karl Grillenberger won the first Reichstag mandate for the SPD in Bavaria in Nuremberg. 1887 the SPD in the Kingdom of Bavaria joined for the first time the election to the Chamber of Deputies of the Kingdom, received 2.1 percent of the vote, but no seat. In 1888, the Social Democratic newspaper of Münchener Post was founded; the history of the SPD Bayern as a separate organization began with the first party conference of the SPD in Bavaria, which met on the initiative of Georg von Vollmar in 1892 in Reinhausen near Regensburg. The party congress decided that the SPD would take part in the state elections in 1893 and passed an election program
Cordell Cleare is a New York City District Leader, a Democrat. She is a founding member of the Michelle Obama Community Democratic Club, she served as chair to the New York City Coalition to End Lead Poisoning. Cordell continues to advocate for the cause, she has served on District #3 Community Education Council. She was a Community School Board member for six years. Cordell is a recipient of the Brooke Russell Astor Award. Cordell served as Chief-of-Staff for State Senator Bill Perkins for over 18 years. Cordell Cleare was raised in Harlem, she attended Brooklyn Technical High School. Her public work began as a tenant organizer, she began to advocate for lead poisoning awareness as her own son was a victim. Cordell Cleare has worked for over 18 years for New York State Senator Bill Perkins and last served as his chief of staff, she is a founding member of the Michelle Obama Community Democratic Club based in New York City, NY, New York City District Leader for District 70. Cordell is running for Harlem City Council seat of Inez Dickens.
She is on the Advisory Board for the African American Day Parade, has worked with the African Day Parade. Cleare supported justice for the Central Park jogger case. In 2008, Cleare campaigned for President Barack Obama. In 2012, she supported Barack Obama's run for re-election, was a delegate. Cleare was a Bernie Sanders delegate for in 2016, she has worked and supported "New York Health" bill to establish universal healthcare system for the state of New York. As of 2017, Cleare is running for Harlem Council Member to represent District #9, she was endorsed by New York Amsterdam News. They said "....we understand the significant role she played during her years working in the City Council and State State". "Now, it's her turn in the election arena".2017 - The League of Pissed off Voters of New York endorsed Cordell for District 9 City Council, stating that "she is the kind of grass-roots figure we want to see taking up offices throughout this city". "I'm not tired of serving". It has been a constant learning experience and constant fulfillment providing leadership for this community.
I wake up everyday thinking about this job.""We've dealt with this, we've lived with this, we've withstood loss of property, loss of irreplaceable items, record albums, loss of days from work, just by the grace of God no one has been physically injured," said tenant Cordell Cleare. 1997: Brooke Russell Astor Award - Co-Chair of the New York City Coalition to End Lead Poisoning Debate of the 2017 Candidates for the New York City District 9 Councilmember seat - Part 1 of 5 New York State Senator Bill Perkins, Cordell Cleare, the Sojourner Truth Democratic Party Kwanzaa Celebration 2015 New York Delegate Speaks to Jack and Jill Politics Senator Bill Perkins Annual Kwanzaa Celebration 2014 New York Delegate Speaks to Jack and Jill Politics Cordell Cleare Amsterdam News
Mark Tooley is an American Methodist layman and writer. He is a lifelong member of the United Methodist Church, who became president of the Washington-D. C. Based Institute on Religion and Democracy, in 2009, a conservative religious think tank noted for its opposition to religious and social liberalism, he has worked for IRD since 1994, prior to which he worked for the CIA. His articles appear in The American Spectator, The Weekly Standard, Frontpagemag.com and elsewhere. He is the author of Taking Back the United Methodist Church. Tooley was featured in the October 2009 issue of World magazine. In November 2009, Tooley signed an ecumenical statement known as the Manhattan Declaration calling on Evangelicals and Orthodox not to comply with rules and laws permitting abortion, same-sex marriage and other matters that go against their religious consciences. Tooley authored Methodism & Politics in the 20th Century: From William McKinley to 9-11, the first comprehensive overview of the political witness of what was once America's largest Protestant denomination.
In 2015 Tooley's book, The Peace That Almost Was: The Forgotten Story of the 1861 Washington Peace Conference and the Final Attempt to Avert the Civil War was published by Thomas Nelson/Harper Collins. Methodism and Politics in the 20th Century from William McKinley to 9/11, Bristol House, 2011, ISBN 9781885224712 The Peace That Almost Was: The Forgotten Story of the 1861 Washington Peace Conference and the Final Attempt to Avert the Civil War. Thomas Nelson. 14 July 2015. ISBN 978-0-7180-2224-2. Three Weeks Till Hell Breaks Loose, Harpercollins Christian Pub, 2015, ISBN 9780529110596
The Apostolic Vicariate of Hosanna is a Catholic pre-diocesan missionary jurisdiction of the Roman Catholic Church in Ethiopia. It is exempt, i.e. directly subject to the Holy See via the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples), not part of any ecclesiastical conference. Its cathedral episcopal see since 2010 is a St. Joseph's cathedral, built in 1999 and dedicated to the diocesan patron saint, in Hosanna; as per 2014, it pasorally served 143,204 Catholics on 8,214 km² in 26 parishes and 3 missions with 48 priests, 1 deacon, 64 lay religious and 15 seminarians. Established on 1940.02.13 as Apostolic Prefecture of Hosanna, on territories split off from the Apostolic Prefecture of Neghelli and Apostolic Vicariate of Gimma and run by missionary Capuchin Friars Minor. Suppressed on 1977.12.30, its territory being reassigned to establish the Apostolic Prefecture of Soddo–Hosanna. Restored and promoted on January 20, 2010 by Pope Benedict XVI as Apostolic Vicariate of Hosanna on territory restituted from the meanwhile promoted Apostolic Vicariate of Soddo–Hosanna (which is accordingly renamed Apostolic Vicariate of Soddo.
The Apostolic Vicariate of Hosanna comprises the whole population of Hadiya, Kambata-Tambaro zones and parts of Alaba special woreda and Silte zone. Apostolic Prefects of HosannaFather Tiziano da Verona, Capuchin Franciscans Apostolic Administrator Urbain-Marie Person, O. F. M. Cap. While Apostolic Prefect of Neghelli Apostolic Administrator of Apostolic Vicariate of Gimma, Apostolic Administrator of Apostolic Vicariate of Harar until promoted Apostolic Vicar of Harar & Titular Bishop of Cyme, Apostolic Prefect of Awasa Apostolic Administrator Father Domenico Crescentino Marinozzi, O. F. M. Cap.. List of Catholic dioceses in Ethiopia and Eritrea Catholic Church in Ethiopia GCatholic with incumbent bio links - data for all sections GCatholic and GoogleMaps the cathedral