2016 United States presidential election

2016 United States presidential election

← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 →
538 members of the Electoral College 270 electoral votes needed to win
Turnout	55.7%[1] 0.8 pp
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton Party Republican Democratic Home state New York New York Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine Electoral vote 304[a] 227[a] States carried 30 + ME-02 20 + DC Popular vote 62,984,828 65,853,514 Percentage 46.1% 48.2%
Presidential election results map. Red denotes states won by Trump/Pence, blue denotes those won by Clinton/Kaine. Numbers indicate electoral votes allotted to the winner of each state. Faithless electors: Colin Powell 3 (WA), John Kasich 1 (TX), Ron Paul 1 (TX), Bernie Sanders 1 (HI), Faith Spotted Eagle 1 (WA)
President before election Barack Obama Democratic Elected President Donald Trump Republican

2016 U.S. presidential election
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Republican Party
Primaries Candidates Debates and forums Polling national statewide straw polls Endorsements Results Nominee Convention
Democratic Party
Primaries Candidates Debates and forums Polling national statewide straw polls Endorsements Results Nominee Convention Superdelegates
Minor parties
Third party and independent candidates Libertarian Party primaries debates nominee convention Green Party primaries debates nominee convention Constitution Party primaries nominee Independents McMullin
Related races
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The 2016 United States presidential election was the 58th quadrennial American presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016. The Republican ticket of businessman Donald Trump and Indiana Governor Mike Pence defeated the Democratic ticket of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and U.S. Senator from Virginia Tim Kaine, despite losing the popular vote.^[2] Trump took office as the 45th president, and Pence as the 48th vice president, on January 20, 2017.

Trump emerged as the front-runner amidst a wide field of Republican primary candidates, while Clinton defeated Senator Bernie Sanders and became the first female presidential nominee of a major American party. Trump's populist, nationalist campaign, which promised to "Make America Great Again" and opposed political correctness, illegal immigration, and many free-trade agreements,^[3] garnered extensive free media coverage.^[4][5] Clinton emphasized her extensive political experience, denounced Trump and many of his supporters as bigots, and advocated the expansion of President Obama's policies; racial, LGBT, and women's rights; and "inclusive capitalism".^[6] The tone of the general election campaign was widely characterized as divisive and negative.^[7][8][9] Trump faced controversy over his views on race and immigration, incidents of violence against protestors at his rallies,^[10][11][12] and his alleged sexual misconduct, while Clinton's campaign was undermined by declining approval ratings^[13] and an FBI investigation of her improper use of a private email server.

Clinton had held the lead in nearly every pre-election nationwide poll and in most swing state polls, leading some commentators to compare Trump's victory to that of Harry S. Truman in 1948 as one of the greatest political upsets in modern U.S. history.^[14][15] While Clinton received 2.87 million more votes nationwide (the largest margin ever for a candidate who lost the electoral college),^[16] a margin of 2.1%, Trump won a majority of electoral votes, with a total of 306 electors from 30 states, including upset victories in the pivotal Rust Belt region. Ultimately, Trump received 304 electoral votes and Clinton garnered 227, as two faithless electors defected from Trump and five defected from Clinton. Trump is the fifth person in U.S. history to become president while losing the nationwide popular vote.^[b] He is the first president without any prior experience in public service or the military, the oldest at inauguration and is believed by many to be the wealthiest.

The United States government's intelligence agencies concluded on January 6, 2017, that the Russian government had interfered in the elections^[18][19][20] in order to "undermine public faith in the U.S. democratic process, denigrate Secretary Clinton, and harm her electability and potential presidency".^[21] President Trump repeatedly criticized these conclusions, calling the issue a "hoax" and "fake news".^[22] Trump has also criticized accusations of collusion between Russia and his campaign, citing a lack of evidence.^[23] Investigations regarding such collusion were started by the FBI,^[24][25] the Senate Intelligence Committee,^[26] and the House Intelligence Committee.^[27] The Special Counsel investigation began in May 2017^[28][29] and concluded in March 2019 that "the investigation did not establish that members of the Trump Campaign conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in its election interference activities" though it did find 10 “episodes” of potential obstruction.^[30]

Background

Barack Obama, the incumbent President of the United States in 2016, whose second term expired at noon on January 20, 2017

Article Two of the United States Constitution provides that the President and Vice President of the United States must be natural-born citizens of the United States, at least 35 years old, and residents of the United States for a period of at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the political parties, in which case each party devises a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. Traditionally, the primary elections are indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The general election in November is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors in turn directly elect the President and Vice President.

President Barack Obama, a Democrat and former U.S. Senator from Illinois, was ineligible to seek reelection to a third term due to the restrictions of the Twenty-second Amendment; in accordance with Section 1 of the Twentieth Amendment, his term expired at noon eastern standard time on January 20, 2017.

Primary process

The series of presidential primary elections and caucuses took place between February and June 2016, staggered among the 50 states, the District of Columbia and U.S. territories. This nominating process was also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of delegates to a political party's nominating convention, who in turn elected their party's presidential nominee.

Speculation about the 2016 campaign began almost immediately following the 2012 campaign, with New York magazine declaring the race had begun in an article published on November 8, two days after the 2012 election.^[31] On the same day, Politico released an article predicting the 2016 general election would be between Clinton and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, while a New York Times article named New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Senator Cory Booker from New Jersey as potential candidates.^[32][33]

Nominations

Republican Party

Primaries

With seventeen major candidates entering the race, starting with Ted Cruz on March 23, 2015, this was the largest presidential primary field for any political party in American history.^[34]

Prior to the Iowa caucuses on February 1, 2016, Perry, Walker, Jindal, Graham, and Pataki withdrew due to low polling numbers. Despite leading many polls in Iowa, Trump came in second to Cruz, after which Huckabee, Paul and Santorum withdrew due to poor performances at the ballot box. Following a sizable victory for Trump in the New Hampshire primary, Christie, Fiorina and Gilmore abandoned the race. Bush followed suit after scoring fourth place to Trump, Rubio and Cruz in South Carolina. On March 1, 2016, the first of four "Super Tuesday" primaries, Rubio won his first contest in Minnesota, Cruz won Alaska, Oklahoma and his home of Texas and Trump won the other seven states that voted. Failing to gain traction, Carson suspended his campaign a few days later.^[35] On March 15, 2016, the second "Super Tuesday", Kasich won his only contest in his home state of Ohio and Trump won five primaries including Florida. Rubio suspended his campaign after losing his home state.^[36]

Between March 16 and May 3, 2016, only three candidates remained in the race: Trump, Cruz and Kasich. Cruz won the most delegates in four Western contests and in Wisconsin, keeping a credible path to denying Trump the nomination on first ballot with 1,237 delegates. Trump then augmented his lead by scoring landslide victories in New York and five Northeastern states in April, followed by a decisive victory in Indiana on May 3, 2016, securing all 57 of the state's delegates. Without any further chances of forcing a contested convention, both Cruz^[37] and Kasich^[38] suspended their campaigns. Trump remained the only active candidate and was declared the presumptive Republican nominee by Republican National Committee chairman Reince Priebus on the evening of May 3, 2016.^[39]

A 2018 study found that media coverage of Trump led to increased public support for him during the primaries. The study showed Trump received nearly $2 billion in free media, more than double any other candidate. Political scientist John Sides argued that Trump's polling surge was "almost certainly" due to frequent media coverage of his campaign. Sides concluded "Trump is surging in the polls because the news media has consistently focused on him since he announced his candidacy on June 16".^[40] Prior to clinching the Republican nomination, Trump received little support from establishment Republicans.^[41]

Nominees

This article is part of a series about Donald Trump
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2016 Republican Party ticket
Donald Trump	Mike Pence
for President	for Vice President
Chairman of The Trump Organization (1971–2017)	50th Governor of Indiana (2013–2017)
Campaign
[42][43][44]

Candidates

Major candidates were determined by the various media based on common consensus. The following were invited to sanctioned televised debates based on their poll ratings.

Trump received 14,010,177 total votes in the primary. Trump, Cruz, Rubio and Kasich each won at least one primary, with Trump receiving the highest number of votes and Ted Cruz receiving the second highest.

Candidates in this section are sorted by reverse date of withdrawal from the primaries
John Kasich	Ted Cruz	Marco Rubio	Ben Carson	Jeb Bush	Jim Gilmore	Carly Fiorina	Chris Christie
69th Governor of Ohio (2011–2019)	U.S. Senator from Texas (2013–present)	U.S. Senator from Florida (2011–present)	Dir. of Pediatric Neurosurgery, Johns Hopkins Hospital (1984–2013)	43rd Governor of Florida (1999–2007)	68th Governor of Virginia (1998–2002)	CEO of Hewlett-Packard (1999–2005)	55th Governor of New Jersey (2010–2018)
Campaign	Campaign	Campaign	Campaign	Campaign	Campaign	Campaign	Campaign
W: May 4 4,287,479 votes	W: May 3 7,811,110 votes	W: Mar 15 3,514,124 votes	W: Mar 4 857,009 votes	W: Feb 20 286,634 votes	W: Feb 12 18,364 votes	W: Feb 10 40,577 votes	W: Feb 10 57,634 votes
[45]	[46][47][48]	[49][50][51]	[52][53][54]	[55][56]	[57][58]	[59][60]	[61][62]
Rand Paul	Rick Santorum	Mike Huckabee	George Pataki	Lindsey Graham	Bobby Jindal	Scott Walker	Rick Perry
U.S. Senator from Kentucky (2011–present)	U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania (1995–2007)	44th Governor of Arkansas (1996–2007)	53rd Governor of New York (1995–2006)	U.S. Senator from South Carolina (2003–present)	55th Governor of Louisiana (2008–2016)	45th Governor of Wisconsin (2011–2019)	47th Governor of Texas (2000–2015)
Campaign	Campaign	Campaign	Campaign	Campaign	Campaign	Campaign	Campaign
W: Feb 3 66,781 votes	W: Feb 3 16,622 votes	W: Feb 1 51,436 votes	W: December 29, 2015 2,036 votes	W: December 21, 2015 5,666 votes	W: November 17, 2015 222 votes	W: September 21, 2015 1 write-in vote in New Hampshire	W: September 11, 2015 1 write-in vote in New Hampshire
[63][64][65]	[66][67]	[68][69]	[70]	[71][72]	[73][74]	[75][76][77]	[77][78][79]

Vice presidential selection

Trump turned his attention towards selecting a running mate after he became the presumptive nominee on May 4, 2016.^[80] In mid-June, Eli Stokols and Burgess Everett of Politico reported that the Trump campaign was considering New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich from Georgia, Senator Jeff Sessions of Alabama, and Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin.^[81] A June 30 report from The Washington Post also included Senators Bob Corker from Tennessee, Richard Burr from North Carolina, Tom Cotton from Arkansas, Joni Ernst from Iowa, and Indiana Governor Mike Pence as individuals still being considered for the ticket.^[82] Trump also stated that he was considering two military generals for the position, including retired Lieutenant General Michael Flynn.^[83]

In July 2016, it was reported that Trump had narrowed his list of possible running mates down to three: Christie, Gingrich, and Pence.^[84]

On July 14, 2016, several major media outlets reported that Trump had selected Pence as his running mate. Trump confirmed these reports in a message on Twitter on July 15, 2016, and formally made the announcement the following day in New York.^[85][86] On July 19, the second night of the 2016 Republican National Convention, Pence won the Republican vice presidential nomination by acclamation.^[87]

Democratic Party

Primaries

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who also served in the U.S. Senate and was the First Lady of the United States, became the first Democrat in the field to formally launch a major candidacy for the presidency with an announcement on April 12, 2015, via a video message.^[88] While nationwide opinion polls in 2015 indicated that Clinton was the front-runner for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination, she faced strong challenges from Independent Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont,^[89] who became the second major candidate when he formally announced on April 30, 2015, that he was running for the Democratic nomination.^[90] September 2015 polling numbers indicated a narrowing gap between Clinton and Sanders.^[89][91][92] On May 30, 2015, former Governor of Maryland Martin O'Malley was the third major candidate to enter the Democratic primary race,^[93] followed by former Independent Governor and Republican Senator of Rhode Island Lincoln Chafee on June 3, 2015,^[94][95] former Virginia Senator Jim Webb on July 2, 2015,^[96] and former Harvard law professor Lawrence Lessig on September 6, 2015.^[97]

On October 20, 2015, Webb announced his withdrawal from the primaries, and explored a potential Independent run.^[98] The next day Vice-President Joe Biden decided not to run, ending months of speculation, stating, "While I will not be a candidate, I will not be silent."^[99][100] On October 23, Chafee withdrew, stating that he hoped for "an end to the endless wars and the beginning of a new era for the United States and humanity".^[101] On November 2, after failing to qualify for the second DNC-sanctioned debate after adoption of a rule change negated polls which before might have necessitated his inclusion in the debate, Lessig withdrew as well, narrowing the field to Clinton, O'Malley, and Sanders.^[102]

On February 1, 2016, in an extremely close contest, Clinton won the Iowa caucuses by a margin of 0.2 points over Sanders. After winning no delegates in Iowa, O'Malley withdrew from the presidential race that day. On February 9, Sanders bounced back to win the New Hampshire primary with 60% of the vote. In the remaining two February contests, Clinton won the Nevada caucuses with 53% of the vote and scored a decisive victory in the South Carolina primary with 73% of the vote.^[103][104] On March 1, 11 states participated in the first of four "Super Tuesday" primaries. Clinton won Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia and 504 pledged delegates, while Sanders won Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma and his home state of Vermont and 340 delegates. The following weekend, Sanders won victories in Kansas, Nebraska and Maine with 15–30-point margins, while Clinton won the Louisiana primary with 71% of the vote. On March 8, despite never having a lead in the Michigan primary, Sanders won by a small margin of 1.5 points and outperforming polls by over 19 points, while Clinton won 83% of the vote in Mississippi.^[105] On March 15, the second "Super Tuesday", Clinton won in Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio. Between March 22 and April 9, Sanders won six caucuses in Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii, Washington and Wyoming, as well as the Wisconsin primary, while Clinton won the Arizona primary. On April 19, Clinton won the New York primary with 58% of the vote. On April 26, in the third "Super Tuesday" dubbed the "Acela primary", she won contests in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland and Pennsylvania, while Sanders won in Rhode Island. Over the course of May, Sanders accomplished another surprise win in the Indiana primary^[106] and also won in West Virginia and Oregon, while Clinton won the Guam caucus and Kentucky primary (and also non-binding primaries in Nebraska and Washington).

On June 4 and 5, Clinton won two victories in the Virgin Islands caucus and Puerto Rico primary. On June 6, 2016, the Associated Press and NBC News reported that Clinton had become the presumptive nominee after reaching the required number of delegates, including pledged delegates and superdelegates, to secure the nomination, becoming the first woman to ever clinch the presidential nomination of a major U.S. political party.^[107] On June 7, Clinton secured a majority of pledged delegates after winning primaries in California, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota, while Sanders only won in Montana and North Dakota. Clinton also won the final primary in the District of Columbia on June 14. At the conclusion of the primary process, Clinton had won 2,204 pledged delegates (54% of the total) awarded by the primary elections and caucuses, while Sanders had won 1,847 (46%). Out of the 714 unpledged delegates or "superdelegates" who were set to vote in the convention in July, Clinton received endorsements from 560 (78%), while Sanders received 47 (7%).^[108]

Although Sanders had not formally dropped out of the race, he announced on June 16, 2016, that his main goal in the coming months would be to work with Clinton to defeat Trump in the general election.^[109] On July 8, appointees from the Clinton campaign, the Sanders campaign, and the Democratic National Committee negotiated a draft of the party's platform.^[110] On July 12, Sanders formally endorsed Clinton at a rally in New Hampshire in which he appeared with her.^[111]

Nominees

This article is part of a series about Hillary Clinton
Political positions Electoral history First Lady of the United States Role Health care plan SCHIP Whitewater and other investigations Response to Lewinsky scandal U.S. Senator from New York Tenure 2000 election 2006 re-election U.S. Secretary of State Tenure Obama's foreign policy QDDR Email controversy Hillary Doctrine Presidential campaigns 2008 Primaries Convention Endorsements 2016 Primaries Convention Debates Election Endorsements political non-political Organizations Clinton Foundation State Department controversy Onward Together Awards and honors Bibliography
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2016 Democratic Party ticket
Hillary Clinton	Tim Kaine
for President	for Vice President
67th U.S. Secretary of State (2009–2013)	U.S. Senator from Virginia (2013–present)
Campaign
[112][113][114]

Candidates

The following candidates were frequently interviewed by major broadcast networks and cable news channels, or were listed in publicly published national polls. Lessig was invited to one forum, but withdrew when rules were changed which prevented him from participating in officially sanctioned debates.

Clinton received 16,849,779 votes in the primary.

Candidates in this section are sorted by date of withdrawal from the primaries
Bernie Sanders	Martin O'Malley	Lawrence Lessig	Lincoln Chafee	Jim Webb
U.S. Senator from Vermont (2007–present)	61st Governor of Maryland (2007–2015)	Harvard Law professor (2009–2016)	74th Governor of Rhode Island (2011–2015)	U.S. Senator from Virginia (2007–2013)
Campaign	Campaign	Campaign	Campaign	Campaign
LN: July 26, 2016 13,167,848 votes	W: February 1, 2016 110,423 votes	W: November 2, 2015 4 write-in votes in New Hampshire	W: October 23, 2015 0 votes	W: October 20, 2015 2 write-in votes in New Hampshire
[115]	[116][117]	[102]	[118]	[119]

Vice presidential selection

In April 2016, the Clinton campaign began to compile a list of 15 to 20 individuals to vet for the position of running mate, even though Sanders continued to challenge Clinton in the Democratic primaries.^[120] In mid-June, The Wall Street Journal reported that Clinton's shortlist included Representative Xavier Becerra from California, Senator Cory Booker from New Jersey, Senator Sherrod Brown from Ohio, Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro from Texas, Mayor of Los Angeles Eric Garcetti from California, Senator Tim Kaine from Virginia, Labor Secretary Tom Perez from Maryland, Representative Tim Ryan from Ohio, and Senator Elizabeth Warren from Massachusetts.^[121] Subsequent reports stated that Clinton was also considering Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack, retired Admiral James Stavridis, and Governor John Hickenlooper of Colorado.^[122] In discussing her potential vice presidential choice, Clinton stated that the most important attribute she looked for was the ability and experience to immediately step into the role of president.^[122]

On July 22, Clinton announced that she had chosen Senator Tim Kaine from Virginia as her running mate.^[123] The delegates at the 2016 Democratic National Convention, which took place July 25–28, formally nominated the Democratic ticket.

Third parties and independents

Campaign signs of third-party candidates Jill Stein and Gary Johnson, October 2016 in St. Johnsbury, Vermont

Third party and independent candidates that have obtained more than 100,000 votes nationally and one percent of the vote in at least one state are listed separately.

Libertarian Party

This article is part of a series about Gary Johnson
Political positions Electoral history Our America Initiative Governor of New Mexico 1994 election 1998 re-election Presidential campaigns 2012 Convention Election 2016 Primaries Convention Election Endorsements 2018 U.S. Senate campaign
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This article is part of a series about Bill Weld
Political ideology Electoral history Pre-governorship U.S. Attorney for the District of Massachusetts U.S. Assistant Attorney General for the Criminal Division Governor of Massachusetts Governorship Vice presidential campaign 2016 Convention Election Presidential campaign 2020 Primaries
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• Gary Johnson, 29th Governor of New Mexico. Vice-presidential nominee: Bill Weld, 68th Governor of Massachusetts

Additional Party Endorsements: Independence Party of New York

Ballot access to all 538 electoral votes

Nominees

2016 Libertarian Party ticket
Gary Johnson	Bill Weld
for President	for Vice President
29th Governor of New Mexico (1995–2003)	68th Governor of Massachusetts (1991–1997)
Campaign
[124][125]

Green Party

This article is part of a series about Jill Stein
Political positions Career Green New Deal Presidential campaigns 2012 Election Convention Primaries 2016 Election Convention Primaries Endorsements Election recounts Political party affiliations Green-Rainbow Party Green Party of the United States 2010 Massachusetts gubernatorial election
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• Jill Stein, physician from Lexington, Massachusetts. Vice-presidential nominee: Ajamu Baraka, activist from Washington, DC

Ballot access to 480 electoral votes (522 with write-in):^[126] – map

• As write-in: Georgia, Indiana, North Carolina^[127][128]
• Ballot access lawsuit pending: Oklahoma^[129]
• No ballot access: Nevada, South Dakota^[127][130]

Nominees

2016 Green Party ticket
Jill Stein	Ajamu Baraka
for President	for Vice President
Physician from Lexington, Massachusetts	Activist from Washington, DC
Campaign
[131][132]

Independent

• Evan McMullin, chief policy director for the House Republican Conference. Vice-presidential nominee: Mindy Finn, president of Empowered Women.

Additional Party Endorsement: Independence Party of Minnesota, South Carolina Independence Party

Ballot access to 84 electoral votes (451 with write-in):^[133] – map

• As write-in: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin^{[133][134][135][136][137][138][139]}
• No ballot access: District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Indiana, Mississippi, Nevada, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Wyoming

In some states, Evan McMullin's running mate was listed as Nathan Johnson on the ballot rather than Mindy Finn, although Nathan Johnson was intended to only be a placeholder until an actual running mate was chosen.^[140]

2016 Independent ticket
Evan McMullin	Mindy Finn
for President	for Vice President
Chief policy director for the House Republican Conference (2015–2016)	President of Empowered Women (2015–present)
Campaign
[141]

Constitution Party

• Darrell Castle, attorney from Memphis, Tennessee. Vice-presidential nominee: Scott Bradley, businessman from Utah

Ballot access to 207 electoral votes (451 with write-in):^[142][143] – map

• As write-in: Alabama, Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia^{[142][144][145][146][147]}
• No ballot access: California, District of Columbia, Massachusetts, North Carolina, Oklahoma^[142]

Nominees

2016 Constitution Party ticket
Darrell Castle	Scott Bradley
for President	for Vice President
Attorney from Memphis, Tennessee	Businessman from Utah
Campaign
[148]

Other nominations

General election campaign

A general election ballot, listing the presidential and vice presidential candidates.

Hillary Clinton focused her candidacy on several themes, including raising middle class incomes, expanding women's rights, instituting campaign finance reform, and improving the Affordable Care Act. In March 2016, she laid out a detailed economic plan basing her economic philosophy on inclusive capitalism, which proposed a "clawback" that rescinds tax relief and other benefits for companies that move jobs overseas; with provision of incentives for companies that share profits with employees, communities and the environment, rather than focusing on short-term profits to increase stock value and rewarding shareholders; as well as increasing collective bargaining rights; and placing an "exit tax" on companies that move their headquarters out of the U.S. in order to pay a lower tax rate overseas.^[200] Clinton promoted equal pay for equal work to address current alleged shortfalls in how much women are paid to do the same jobs men do,^[201] promoted explicitly focus on family issues and support of universal preschool,^[202] expressed support for the right to same-sex marriage,^[202] and proposed allowing undocumented immigrants to have a path to citizenship stating that it "[i]s at its heart a family issue".^[203]

Donald Trump's campaign drew heavily on his personal image, enhanced by his previous media exposure.^[204] The primary slogan of the Trump campaign, extensively used on campaign merchandise, was Make America Great Again. The red baseball cap with the slogan emblazoned on the front became a symbol of the campaign, and has been frequently donned by Trump and his supporters.^[205] Trump's right-wing populist positions—reported by The New Yorker to be nativist, protectionist, and semi-isolationist—differ in many ways from traditional conservatism.^[206] He opposed many free trade deals and military interventionist policies that conservatives generally support, and opposed cuts in Medicare and Social Security benefits. Moreover, he has insisted that Washington is "broken" and can only be fixed by an outsider.^{[207][208][209]} Support for Trump was high among working and middle-class white male voters with annual incomes of less than $50,000 and no college degree.^[210] This group, particularly those with less than a high-school education, suffered a decline in their income in recent years.^[211] According to The Washington Post, support for Trump is higher in areas with a higher mortality rate for middle-age white people.^[212] A sample of interviews with more than 11,000 Republican-leaning respondents from August to December 2015 found that Trump at that time found his strongest support among Republicans in West Virginia, followed by New York, and then followed by six Southern states.^[213]

Clinton had an uneasy, and at times adversarial relationship with the press throughout her life in public service.^[214] Weeks before her official entry as a presidential candidate, Clinton attended a political press corps event, pledging to start fresh on what she described as a "complicated" relationship with political reporters.^[215] Clinton was initially criticized by the press for avoiding taking their questions,^[216][217] after which she provided more interviews.

In contrast, Trump benefited from free media more than any other candidate. From the beginning of his campaign through February 2016, Trump received almost $2 billion in free media attention, twice the amount that Clinton received.^[218] According to data from the Tyndall Report, which tracks nightly news content, through February 2016, Trump alone accounted for more than a quarter of all 2016 election coverage on the evening newscasts of NBC, CBS and ABC, more than all the Democratic campaigns combined.^{[219][220][221]} Observers noted Trump's ability to garner constant mainstream media coverage "almost at will".^[222] However, Trump frequently criticized the media for writing what he alleged to be false stories about him^[223] and he has called upon his supporters to be "the silent majority".^[224] Trump also said the media "put false meaning into the words I say", and says he does not mind being criticized by the media as long as they are honest about it.^[225][226]

Both Clinton and Trump were seen unfavorably by the general public, and their controversial nature set the tone of the campaign.^[227]

Trump campaigns in Phoenix, Arizona, October 29, 2016

Clinton's practice during her time as Secretary of State of using a private email address and server, in lieu of State Department servers, gained widespread public attention back in March 2015.^[228] Concerns were raised about security and preservation of emails, and the possibility that laws may have been violated.^[229] After allegations were raised that some of the emails in question fell into this so-called "born classified" category, an FBI probe was initiated regarding how classified information was handled on the Clinton server.^{[230][231][232][233]} The FBI probe was concluded on July 5, 2016, with a recommendation of no charges, a recommendation that was followed by the Justice Department. On October 28, eleven days before the election, FBI Director James Comey informed Congress that the FBI was analyzing additional emails obtained during its investigation of an unrelated case.^[234][235] On November 6, he notified Congress that the new emails did not change the FBI's earlier conclusion.^[236][237]

Also, on September 9, 2016, Clinton stated: "You know, just to be grossly generalistic, you could put half of Trump's supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables. They're racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic—you name it."^[238] Donald Trump criticized her remark as insulting his supporters.^[239][240] The following day Clinton expressed regret for saying "half", while insisting that Trump had deplorably amplified "hateful views and voices".^[241] Previously on August 25, 2016, Clinton gave a speech criticizing Trump's campaign for using "racist lies" and allowing the alt-right to gain prominence.^[242]

Clinton campaigns in Raleigh, North Carolina, October 22, 2016

On the other side, on October 7, 2016, video and accompanying audio were released by The Washington Post in which Trump referred obscenely to women in a 2005 conversation with Billy Bush while they were preparing to film an episode of Access Hollywood. The audio was met with a reaction of disbelief and disgust from the media.^{[243][244][245]} Following the revelation, Trump's campaign issued an apology, stating that the video was of a private conversation from "many years ago".^[246] The incident was condemned by numerous prominent Republicans like Reince Priebus, Mitt Romney, John Kasich, Jeb Bush^[247] and the Speaker of the House Paul Ryan.^[248] By October 8, several dozen Republicans had called for Trump to withdraw from the campaign and let Pence head the ticket.^[249] Trump insisted he would never drop out.^[250]

The ongoing controversy of the election made third parties attract voters' attention. On March 3, 2016, Libertarian Gary Johnson addressed the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington DC, touting himself as the third-party option for anti-Trump Republicans.^[251][252] In early May, some commentators opined that Johnson was moderate enough to pull votes away from both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump who were very disliked and polarizing.^[253] Both conservative and liberal media noted that Johnson could get votes from "Never Trump" Republicans and disaffected Bernie Sanders supporters.^[254] Johnson also began to get time on national television, being invited on ABC News, NBC News, CBS News, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, Bloomberg, and many other networks.^[255] In September and October 2016, Johnson suffered a "string of damaging stumbles when he has fielded questions about foreign affairs".^[256][257] On September 8, Johnson, when he appeared on MSNBC's Morning Joe, was asked by panelist Mike Barnicle, "What would you do, if you were elected, about Aleppo?" (referring to a war-torn city in Syria). Johnson responded, "And what is Aleppo?"^[258] His response prompted widespread attention, much of it negative.^[258][259] Later that day, Johnson said that he had "blanked" and that he did "understand the dynamics of the Syrian conflict – I talk about them every day."^[259]

On the other hand, Green Party candidate Jill Stein stated that the Democratic and Republican parties are "two corporate parties" that have converged into one.^[260] Concerned by the rise of the far right internationally and the tendency towards neoliberalism within the Democratic Party, she has said, "The answer to neofascism is stopping neoliberalism. Putting another Clinton in the White House will fan the flames of this right-wing extremism."^[261][262]

In response to Johnson's growing poll numbers, the Clinton campaign and Democratic allies increased their criticism of Johnson in September 2016, warning that "a vote for a third party is a vote for Donald Trump" and deploying Senator Bernie Sanders (Clinton's former primary rival, who supported her in the general election) to win over voters who might be considering voting for Johnson or for Stein.^[263]

Ballot access

• Candidates in bold were on ballots representing 270 electoral votes, without needing write-in states.
• All other candidates were on the ballots of fewer than 25 states, but had write-in access greater than 270.

Party conventions

Philadelphia

Cleveland

Orlando

Houston

Salt Lake City

  Democratic Party

  Republican Party

  Libertarian Party

  Green Party

  Constitution Party

Democratic Party

• July 25–28, 2016: Democratic National Convention was held in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.^[266]

Republican Party

• July 18–21, 2016: Republican National Convention was held in Cleveland, Ohio.^[267][268]

Libertarian Party

• May 26–30, 2016: Libertarian National Convention was held in Orlando, Florida.^[269][270]

Green Party

• August 4–7, 2016: Green National Convention was held in Houston, Texas.^[271][272]

Constitution Party

• April 13–16, 2016: Constitution Party National Convention was held in Salt Lake City, Utah.^[273]

Campaign finance

This is an overview of the money used in the campaign as it is reported to Federal Election Commission (FEC) and released in September 2016. Outside groups are independent expenditure only committees—also called PACs and SuperPACs. The sources of the numbers are the FEC and Center for Responsive Politics.^[274] Some spending totals are not available, due to withdrawals before the FEC deadline. As of September 2016^[update], ten candidates with ballot access have filed financial reports with the FEC.

Newspaper endorsements

Clinton was endorsed by The New York Times,^[289] the Los Angeles Times,^[290] the Houston Chronicle,^[291] the San Jose Mercury News,^[292] the Chicago Sun-Times^[293] and the New York Daily News^[294] editorial boards. Trump, who has frequently criticized the mainstream media, was not endorsed by the vast majority of newspapers,^[295][296] with the Las Vegas Review-Journal,^[297] The Florida Times-Union,^[298] and the tabloid National Enquirer his highest profile supporters.^[299] Several papers which endorsed Clinton, such as the Houston Chronicle,^[291] The Dallas Morning News,^[300] The San Diego Union-Tribune,^[301] The Columbus Dispatch^[302] and The Arizona Republic,^[303] endorsed their first Democratic candidate for many decades. USA Today, which had not endorsed any candidate since it was founded in 1982, broke tradition by giving an anti-endorsement against Trump, declaring him "unfit for the presidency".^[304][305] The Atlantic, which has been in circulation since 1857, gave Clinton its third-ever endorsement (after Abraham Lincoln and Lyndon Johnson).^[306]

Other traditionally Republican papers, including the New Hampshire Union Leader, which had endorsed the Republican nominee in every election for the last 100 years,^[307] The Detroit News, which had not endorsed a non-Republican in its 143 years,^[308] and the Chicago Tribune,^[309] endorsed Gary Johnson.

Russian involvement

On December 9, 2016, the Central Intelligence Agency issued an assessment to lawmakers in the US Senate, stating that a Russian entity hacked the DNC and John Podesta's emails to assist Donald Trump. The Federal Bureau of Investigation agreed.^[310] President Barack Obama ordered a "full review" into such possible intervention.^[311] Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper in early January 2017 testified before a Senate committee that Russia's meddling in the 2016 presidential campaign went beyond hacking, and included disinformation and the dissemination of fake news, often promoted on social media.^[312]

President-elect Trump originally called the report fabricated,^[313] and Wikileaks denied any involvement by Russian authorities.^[314] Days later, Trump said he could be convinced of the Russian hacking "if there is a unified presentation of evidence from the Federal Bureau of Investigation and other agencies".^[315]

Several U.S. senators—including Republicans John McCain, Richard Burr, and Lindsey Graham—demanded a congressional investigation.^[316] The Senate Intelligence Committee announced the scope of their official inquiry on December 13, 2016, on a bipartisan basis; work began on January 24, 2017.^[26]

A formal Special Counsel investigation was initiated in May 2017, headed by former FBI director Robert Mueller, to uncover the detailed interference operations by Russia, and to determine whether any people associated with the Trump campaign were complicit in the Russian efforts. Mueller concluded his investigation on March 22, 2019, by submitting his report to Attorney General William Barr.^[317] On March 24, Barr submitted his initial summary of Muellers' conclusions,^[318][319] and on April 18 he published a partially redacted version of the full Mueller Report. The report concludes that "(a)lthough the investigation established that the Russian government perceived it would benefit from a Trump presidency and worked to secure that outcome, and that the Campaign expected it would benefit electorally from information stolen and released through Russian efforts, the investigation did not establish that members of the Trump Campaign conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in its election interference activities."^[320]

Voter suppression

The 2016 presidential election was the first in 50 years without all the protections of the original Voting Rights Act.^[321] Fourteen states had new voting restrictions in place, including swing states such as Virginia and Wisconsin.^{[322][323][324][325][326]}

Notable expressions, phrases, and statements

• Basket of deplorables: A controversial phrase coined by Hillary Clinton to describe half of those who support Trump.
• Big-league: A word used by Donald Trump most notably during the first presidential debate, misheard by many as bigly, when he said, "I'm going to cut taxes big-league, and you're going to raise taxes big-league."^[327][328]
• Birdie Sanders: During a campaign stop in Portland, Oregon, a house finch^[329] landed on Sanders's lectern while he was addressing a large crowd of supporters.^[330] The event became popular with the Sanders community and Sanders even began to publicize the bird as "Birdie Sanders".^[330]
• Build the wall: A chant used at many Trump campaign rallies, and Donald Trump's corresponding promise of the Mexican Border Wall.^[327]
• Drain the swamp: A phrase Donald Trump invoked late in the campaign to describe what needs to be done to fix problems in the federal government. Trump acknowledged that the phrase was suggested to him, and he was initially skeptical about using it.^[331]
• Feel the Bern: A phrase chanted by supporters of the Bernie Sanders campaign which was officially adopted by his campaign.^[332]
• Grab 'em by the pussy: A remark made by Trump during a 2005 behind-the-scenes conversation with Billy Bush which was released during the campaign. The remark was part of a conversation in which Trump boasted that "when you're a star, they let you do it."
• I like people who weren't captured: Donald Trump's criticism of Senator John McCain, who was a prisoner of war of the North Vietnamese.^[333][334]
• I'm with her: Clinton's unofficial campaign slogan ("Stronger Together" was the official slogan).^[335]
• Lock her up: A chant first used at the Republican convention to claim that Hillary Clinton is guilty of a crime. The chant was later used at many Trump campaign rallies.^[336]
• Make America great again: Donald Trump's campaign slogan.
• Mexico will pay for it: Trump's campaign promise that if elected he will build a wall on the border between the US and Mexico, with Mexico financing the project.^[337][338]
• Nicknames used by Trump to deride his opponents: These include "Crooked Hillary", "Little Marco", "Low-energy Jeb", and "Lyin' Ted".
• Russia, if you're listening: Used by Donald Trump to invite Russia to illegally "find the 30,000 emails that are missing" (from Hillary Clinton) during a July 2016 news conference.^[339]
• Such a nasty woman: Donald Trump's response to Hillary Clinton after her saying that her proposed rise in Social Security Contributions would also include Trump's Social Security contributions, "assuming he can't figure out how to get out of it".^[327] Later reappropriated by supporters of Clinton^{[340][341][342][343][344][345][346][347][348][349][350][351]} and women's rights.^{[352][353][354]}

• They're bringing drugs. They're bringing crime. They're rapists. And some, I assume, are good people: Donald Trump's controversial description of those crossing the Mexico–United States border during his June 2015 announcing the launch of his campaign.^[355]
• What is Aleppo?: Uttered by Gary Johnson during an interview when questioned about the status of Aleppo during the Syrian Civil War.^[356]
• What, like with a cloth or something?: Said by Hillary Clinton in response to being asked whether she "wiped" her emails during an August 2015 press conference.^[333]
• What the hell do you have to lose?: Said by Donald Trump to inner-city African Americans at rallies starting on August 19, 2016.^[357][358]
• When they go low, we go high: Said by then-first lady Michelle Obama during her Democratic convention speech.^[327]
• Why aren’t I 50 points ahead?: Question asked by Hillary Clinton during a video address to the Laborers' International Union of North America on September 21, 2016, which was then turned into an opposition ad by the Trump campaign.^[359][360]

Debates

Primary election

General election

Hofstra University
Hempstead, NY

Longwood University
Farmville, VA

Washington University
St. Louis, MO

University of Nevada
Las Vegas

Sites of the 2016 general election debates

The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD), a non-profit organization, hosted debates between qualifying presidential and vice-presidential candidates. According to the commission's website, to be eligible to opt to participate in the anticipated debates, "in addition to being Constitutionally eligible, candidates must appear on a sufficient number of state ballots to have a mathematical chance of winning a majority vote in the Electoral College, and have a level of support of at least 15 percent of the national electorate as determined by five selected national public opinion polling organizations, using the average of those organizations' most recently publicly-reported results at the time of the determination."^[361]

The three locations chosen to host the presidential debates, and the one location selected to host the vice presidential debate, were announced on September 23, 2015. The site of the first debate was originally designated as Wright State University in Dayton, Ohio; however, due to rising costs and security concerns, the debate was moved to Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York.^[362]

On August 19, Kellyanne Conway, Trump's campaign manager confirmed that Trump would participate in a series of three debates.^{[363][364][365][366]} Trump had complained two of the scheduled debates, one on September 26 and the other October 9, would have to compete for viewers with National Football League games, referencing the similar complaints made regarding the dates with low expected ratings during the Democratic Party presidential debates.^[367]

There were also debates between Independent Candidates.

Results

President Barack Obama casting his vote early in Chicago on November 7, 2016

Election Night

The news media and election experts were surprised twice: at Trump's winning the GOP nomination; and, in his winning the electoral college. English political scientist Lloyd Gruber said, "One of the major casualties of the 2016 election season has been the reputation of political science, a discipline whose practitioners had largely dismissed Donald Trump's chances of gaining the Republican nomination."^[369] The final polls showed a lead by Clinton—and in the end she did receive more votes.^[370] Trump himself expected, based on polling, to lose the election, and rented a small hotel ballroom to make a brief concession speech; "I said if we're going to lose I don't want a big ballroom", he later remarked.^[371] The Republican candidate performed surprisingly well in all battleground states, especially Florida, Iowa, Ohio and North Carolina. Even Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, states that had been predicted to vote Democratic, were won by Trump.^[372] Cindy Adams, present at Trump Tower, reported that "Trumptown knew they'd won by 5:30. Math, calculations, candidate dislike causing voter abstention begat the numbers."^[373] Trump said that he was surprised by how "that map was getting red as hell. That map was bleeding red ... I always used to believe in [polls]. I don't believe them anymore."^[371]

According to the authors of Shattered: Inside Hillary Clinton's Doomed Campaign, by late Tuesday night the White House had concluded that Trump would win the election. Obama aide David Simas called Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook to persuade Clinton to concede the election, with no success. Obama then called Clinton directly, citing the importance of continuity of government, to ask her to publicly acknowledge that Trump had won. Believing that Clinton was still unwilling to concede, the president then called her campaign chair John Podesta, but the call to Clinton had likely already persuaded her.^[374]

The next day

On Wednesday morning at 2:30 a.m. Eastern Time (ET), it was reported that Trump had secured Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes, giving him a majority of the 538 electors in the Electoral College, enough to make him the president-elect of the United States.^[375]

Clinton called Trump early that morning to concede defeat,^[376] and at 2:50 a.m., Trump gave his victory speech.^[375] Clinton was unable to make a public concession that night, as she had no concession speech written. ^[377] Later that day, Clinton asked her supporters to accept the result and hoped that Trump would be "a successful president for all Americans".^[378] In his speech, Trump appealed for unity, saying "it is time for us to come together as one united people", and praised Clinton as someone who was owed "a major debt of gratitude for her service to our country".^[379]

Analysis

Six states plus a portion of Maine that Obama won in 2012 switched to Trump (Electoral College votes in parentheses): Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), Iowa (6), and Maine's second congressional district (1). Initially, Trump won exactly 100 more Electoral College votes than Mitt Romney had in 2012, with two lost to faithless electors in the final tally. Thirty-nine states swung more Republican compared to the previous presidential election, while eleven states and the District of Columbia swung more Democratic.^[265]

Based on United States Census Bureau estimates of the voting age population (VAP), turnout of voters casting a vote for President was nearly 1% higher than 2012.^[1] Examining overall turnout in the 2016 election, University of Florida Prof. Michael McDonald estimated that 138.8 million Americans cast a ballot.^[380] 65.9 million of those ballots were counted for Clinton and just under 63 million for Trump, representing 20.3% (Clinton) and 19.4% (Trump) of a census estimate of U.S. population that day of 324 million.^[265][381] Considering a VAP of 250.6 million people and voting eligible population (VEP) of 230.6 million people, this is a turnout rate of 55.4% VAP and 60.2% VEP.^[1][380] Based on this estimate, voter turnout was up compared to 2012 (54.1% VAP) but down compared to 2008 (57.4% VAP). A FEC report of the election recorded an official total of 136.7 million votes cast for President — more than any prior election.^[1]

Data scientist Hamdan Azhar noted the paradoxes of the 2016 outcome, saying that "chief among them [was] the discrepancy between the popular vote, which Hillary Clinton won by 2.8 million votes, and the electoral college, where Trump won 304-227".^[382] He said Trump outperformed Mitt Romney's 2012 results, while Clinton only just matched Barack Obama's 2012 totals.^[382] Hamdan also said Trump was "the highest vote earner of any Republican candidate ever," exceeding George W. Bush's 62.04 million votes in 2004, though neither reached Clinton's 65.9 million, nor Obama's 69.5 million votes in 2008, the overall record.^[382] He concluded, with help from The Cook Political Report, that the election hinged not on Clinton's large 2.8 million overall vote margin over Trump, but rather on about 78,000 votes from only three counties in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan (by the same logic, Obama won in 2012 due to three counties in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania).^[382][383]

Candidates table

Notes:

Results by state

The table below displays the official vote tallies by each state's Electoral College voting method. The source for the results of all states is the official Federal Election Commission report. The column labeled "Margin" shows Trump's margin of victory over Clinton (the margin is negative for every state that Clinton won).

A total of 29 third party and independent presidential candidates appeared on the ballot in at least one state. Former Governor of New Mexico Gary Johnson and physician Jill Stein repeated their 2012 roles as the nominees for the Libertarian Party and the Green Party, respectively.^[386] With ballot access to the entire national electorate, Johnson received nearly 4.5 million votes (3.27%), the highest nationwide vote share for a third-party candidate since Ross Perot in 1996,^[387] while Stein received almost 1.45 million votes (1.06%), the most for a Green nominee since Ralph Nader in 2000.

Independent candidate Evan McMullin, who appeared on the ballot in 11 states, received over 732,000 votes (0.53%). He won 21.4% of the vote in his home state of Utah, the highest share of the vote for a third-party candidate in any state since 1992.^[388] Despite dropping out of the election following his defeat in the Democratic primary, Senator Bernie Sanders received 5.7% of the vote in his home state of Vermont, the highest write-in draft campaign percentage for a presidential candidate in American history.^[389] (Because of this, some of his supporters have suggested that Bernie would have won, meaning that Sanders could have beaten Trump even though Clinton was unable to.) Johnson and McMullin were the first third party candidates since Nader to receive at least 5% of the vote in one or more states, with Johnson crossing the mark in 11 states and McMullin crossing it in two.

Aside from Florida and North Carolina, the states which secured Trump's victory are situated in the Great Lakes/Rust Belt region. Wisconsin went Republican for the first time since 1984, while Pennsylvania and Michigan went Republican for the first time since 1988.^{[390][391][392]} Trump also won Maine's 2nd congressional district, which had also not been won by a Republican presidential candidate since 1988. Stein petitioned for a recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. The Clinton campaign pledged to participate in the Green Party recount efforts, while Trump backers challenged them in court.^{[393][394][395]} Meanwhile, American Delta Party/Reform Party presidential candidate Rocky De La Fuente petitioned for and was granted a partial recount in Nevada.^[396]

Electoral methods

• WTA—Winner-takes-all
• CD—Congressional district^★

^★Two states (Maine and Nebraska) allow for their electoral votes to be split between candidates.^[a] The winner within each congressional district gets one electoral vote for the district. The winner of the statewide vote gets two additional electoral votes.^[453][454] Results are from The New York Times.^[455]

Vote margin swing by state 2012 to 2016. Only eleven states (as well as the District of Columbia) trended more Democratic: Arizona, California, Georgia, Illinois, Kansas, Maryland, Massachusetts, Texas, Washington, Virginia and Utah. The large swing in Utah is mostly, but not completely, due to the votes for third candidate Evan McMullin and the 2012 candidacy of Mitt Romney.

Close races

Red denotes states (or congressional districts whose electoral votes are awarded separately) won by Republican Donald Trump; blue denotes those won by Democrat Hillary Clinton.

States where the margin of victory was under 1% (50 electoral votes; 46 won by Trump, 4 by Clinton):

1. Michigan, 0.23% – 16
2. New Hampshire, 0.37% – 4
3. Pennsylvania, 0.72% – 20 (tipping point state, including 2 faithless Texas GOP electors)^[456]
4. Wisconsin, 0.77% – 10 (tipping point state, excluding the 2 faithless GOP electors)^[456]

States/districts where the margin of victory was between 1% and 5% (83 electoral votes; 56 won by Trump, 27 by Clinton):

1. Florida, 1.20% – 29
2. Minnesota, 1.52% – 10
3. Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, 2.24% – 1
4. Nevada, 2.42% – 6
5. Maine, 2.96% – 2
6. Arizona, 3.55% – 11
7. North Carolina, 3.66% – 15
8. Colorado, 4.91% – 9

States where the margin of victory was between 5% and 10% (94 electoral votes; 76 won by Trump, 18 by Clinton):

1. Georgia, 5.16% – 16
2. Virginia, 5.32% – 13
3. Ohio, 8.13% – 18
4. New Mexico, 8.21% – 5
5. Texas, 8.99% – 36
6. Iowa, 9.41% – 6

Breakdown by ticket

Battleground states

Most media outlets announced the beginning of the presidential race about twenty months prior to Election Day. Soon after the first contestants declared their candidacy, Larry Sabato listed Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Florida, Nevada, and Ohio as the seven states most likely to be contested in the general election. After Donald Trump clinched the Republican presidential nomination, many pundits felt that the major campaign locations might be different from what had originally been expected.^[469]

Rust Belt states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and even Michigan were thought to be in play with Trump as the nominee, while states with large minority populations, such as Colorado and Virginia, were expected to shift towards Clinton.^[470] By the conventions period and the debates, however, it did not seem as though the Rust Belt states could deliver a victory to Trump, as many of them were considered to be part of the "blue wall" of Democratic-leaning states. Trump's courting of the Polish-American vote, a sizable number of whom were Reagan Democrats, has been cited as the cause for the loss of the Rust Belt by the Democratic nominee.^[471] According to Politico^[472] and the 538 online blog, his path to victory went through states such as Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, and possibly Colorado.^{[473][474][475][476]}

Early polling indicated a closer-than-usual race in former Democratic strongholds such as Washington, Delaware, New Jersey, Connecticut, Maine (for the two statewide electoral votes), and New Mexico.^{[477][478][479]} Meanwhile, research indicators from inside of a host of Republican-leaning states such as Arizona, Indiana, Georgia, South Carolina, Alaska, Utah, Texas, Kansas, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, and South Dakota reported weaker support for Trump than expected, although the nominee's position solidified in a few other areas. Some reviews took this information as evidence of an expanded 'swing-state map'.^[480]

A consensus among political pundits developed throughout the primary election season regarding swing states.^[481] From the results of presidential elections from 2004 through to 2012, the Democratic and Republican parties would generally start with a safe electoral vote count of about 150 to 200.^[482][483] However, the margins required to constitute a swing state are vague, and can vary between groups of analysts.^[484][485] It was thought that left-leaning states in the Rust Belt could become more conservative, as Trump had strong appeal among many blue-collar workers.^[486] They represent a large portion of the American populace and were a major factor in Trump's eventual nomination. Trump's primary campaign was propelled by victories in Democratic states, and his supporters often did not identify as Republican.^[487] In addition, local factors may come into play. For example, Utah was the reddest state in 2012, although the Republican share was boosted significantly by the candidacy of Mormon candidate Mitt Romney.^[484] Despite its partisan orientation, some reports suggested a victory there by independent candidate Evan McMullin, particularly if there was a nationwide blowout.^[485]

Media reports indicated that both candidates planned to concentrate on Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio and North Carolina.^[488][489] Among the Republican-leaning states, potential Democratic targets included Nebraska's second congressional district, Georgia, and Arizona.^[490] Trump's relatively poor polling in some traditionally Republican states, such as Utah, raised the possibility that they could vote for Clinton, despite easy wins there by recent Republican nominees.^[491] However, many analysts asserted that these states were not yet viable Democratic destinations.^[492][493] Several sites and individuals publish electoral predictions. These generally rate the race by the likelihood for each party to win a state.^[494] The "tossup" label is usually used to indicate that neither party has an advantage, "lean" to indicate a party has a slight edge, "likely" to indicate a party has a clear but not overwhelming advantage, and "safe" to indicate a party has an advantage that cannot be overcome.^[495]

As the parameters of the race established themselves, analysts converged on a narrower list of contested states, which were relatively similar to those of recent elections. On November 7, the Cook Political Report categorized Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as states with close races. Additionally, a district from each of Maine and Nebraska were considered to be coin flips.^[496] Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight listed twenty-two states as potentially competitive about a month before the election – Maine's two at-large electoral votes, New Mexico, Minnesota, Michigan, Colorado, Virginia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Nevada, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Arizona, Georgia, Alaska, South Carolina, Texas, Indiana, Missouri, and Utah – as well as Maine's second and Nebraska's second congressional districts.^[497] Nate Silver, the publication's editor-in-chief, subsequently removed Texas, South Carolina, Missouri, and Indiana from the list after the race tightened significantly.^[498] These conclusions were supported by models such as the Princeton Elections Consortium, the New York Times Upshot, and punditry evaluations from Sabato's Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report.^{[499][500][501][502]}

Clinton won states like New Mexico by less than 10 percentage points.^[503] Among the states where the candidates finished at a margin of within 7 percent, Clinton won Virginia (13 electoral votes), Colorado (9), Maine (2), Minnesota (10), and New Hampshire (4). On the other hand, Trump won Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10), Florida (29), North Carolina (15), Arizona (11), Nebraska's second district (1), and Georgia (16). States won by Obama in the 2012, such as Ohio (18), Iowa (6), and Maine's second district (1), were also won by Trump. The close result in Maine was not expected by most commentators, nor were Trump's victory of over 10 points in the second district and their disparities.^{[504][505][506]} The dramatic shift of Midwestern states towards Trump were contrasted in the media against the relative movement of Southern states towards the Democrats.^[507] For example, former Democratic strongholds such as Minnesota and Maine leaned towards the GOP. Meanwhile, Iowa voted more Republican than Texas did, Georgia was more Democratic than Ohio, and the margin of victory for Trump was greater in North Carolina than Arizona.^[508][509] Trump's smaller victories in Alaska and Utah also took some experts by surprise.^[510]