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2020 United States presidential election

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2020 United States presidential election

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →

538 members of the Electoral College
270 electoral votes needed to win

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About this image
The electoral map for the 2020 election, based on populations from the 2010 Census

Incumbent President

Donald Trump
Republican



The United States presidential election of 2020, scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020, will be the 59th quadrennial U.S. presidential election. Voters will select presidential electors who in turn will either elect a new president and vice president through the electoral college or reelect the incumbents. The series of presidential primary elections and caucuses are likely to be held during the first six months of 2020. This nominating process is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots selecting a slate of delegates to a political party's nominating convention, who then in turn elect their party's presidential nominee.

President Donald Trump of the Republican Party, who was elected in 2016, is seeking reelection to a second term. The winner of the 2020 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2021.

Background

Procedure

Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as President of the United States the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old and a United States resident for at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, in which case each party develops a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The nominee then personally chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's presidential ticket (with the exception of the Libertarian Party, which nominates its vice presidential candidate by delegate vote regardless of the nominee's preference). The general election in November is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the President and Vice President.[1]

In August 2018, the Democratic National Committee voted to disallow superdelegates from voting on the first ballot of the nominating process, beginning with the 2020 election. This would require a candidate to win a majority of pledged delegates from the assorted primary elections in order to win the party's nomination. The last time this did not occur was the nomination of Adlai Stevenson II at the 1952 Democratic National Convention.[2]

The Twenty-second Amendment to the Constitution states that an individual can not be elected to the presidency more than twice. This prohibits former Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama from being elected president again. Former president Jimmy Carter (a nonagenarian), having served a single term as president, is not constitutionally prohibited from being elected to another term in the 2020 election.

Demographic trends

The age group of what will then be people in the 18 to 45-year-old bracket is expected to represent just under 40 percent of the United States' eligible voters in 2020. It is expected that more than 30 percent of eligible American voters will be nonwhite.[3]

A bipartisan report indicates that changes in voter demographics since the 2016 election could impact the results of the 2020 election. African Americans, Hispanics, Asians/others, and "whites with a college degree" are expected to all increase their percentage of national eligible voters by 2020, while "whites without a college degree" will decrease. This shift is potentially an advantage for the Democratic nominee, however due to geographical differences, this could still lead to President Trump (or a different Republican nominee) winning the Electoral College while still losing the popular vote, possibly by an even larger margin than in 2016.[4]

Additionally, Washington, D.C. may lower its voting age from 18 to 16. Legislation was introduced by City Councilman Charles Allen in April 2018, with a public hearing in June, and a vote by the end of the year. Unlike other cities with a voting age of 16 such as Berkeley, California, this would allow 16 and 17-year-olds to vote for President of the United States for the first time in 2020. Allen said that he was inspired by the high school students that participated in the March for Our Lives, which occurred at the capital in March.[5]

Simultaneous elections

The presidential election will occur at the same time as elections to the Senate and the House of Representatives. Several states will also hold state gubernatorial and state legislative elections. Following the election, the United States House will redistribute the seats among the 50 states based on the results of the 2020 United States Census, and the states will conduct a redistricting of Congressional and state legislative districts. In most states, the governor and the state legislature conduct the redistricting (although some states have redistricting commissions), and often a party that wins a presidential election experiences a coattail effect that also helps other candidates of that party win election.[6] Therefore, the party that wins the 2020 presidential election could also win a significant advantage in the drawing of new Congressional and state legislative districts that would stay in effect until the 2032 elections.[7]

General election polling

National polling

National polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Michael
Avenatti (D)
Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios October 24–29, 2018 3,064 47% 43% 9%
Morning Consult August 16–18, 2018 1,974 ± 2.0% 28% 20% 51%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Michael
Avenatti (D)
Michael
Bloomberg (I)
Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios October 24–29, 2018 3,064 45% 14% 33% 7%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Joe
Biden (D)
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios October 24–29, 2018 3,064 44% 53% 3%
Morning Consult August 16–18, 2018 1,974 ± 2.0% 31% 43% 26%
Morning Consult July 26–30, 2018 1,993 ± 2.0% 37% 44% 19%
Public Policy Polling June 8–10, 2018 679 ± 3.8% 39% 53% 8%
Zogby Analytics May 10–12, 2018 881 ± 3.2% 38% 48% 14%
Public Policy Polling March 23–25, 2018 846 ± 3.4% 39% 56% 6%
Public Policy Polling February 9–11, 2018 687 ± 3.7% 42% 51% 7%
CNN/SSRS January 14–18, 2018 913 ± 3.8% 40% 57% 1% 1%
Zogby Analytics January 12–15, 2018 847 ± 3.4% 38% 53% 9%
Public Policy Polling December 11–12, 2017 862 ± 3.3% 40% 54% 6%
Morning Consult November 9–11, 2017 1,993 ± 2.0% 35% 46% 20%
Public Policy Polling October 27–29, 2017 572 ± 4.1% 38% 56% 6%
Zogby Analytics October 19–25, 2017 1,514 ± 2.5% 41% 50% 9%
Emerson College October 12–14, 2017 820 ± 3.4% 42% 51% 7%
Public Policy Polling September 22–25, 2017 865 ± 3.3% 40% 53% 6%
Public Policy Polling August 18–21, 2017 887 ± 3.3% 39% 51% 11%
Public Policy Polling July 14–17, 2017 836 ± 3.4% 39% 54% 7%
Public Policy Polling June 9–11, 2017 811 ± 3.4% 41% 54% 5%
Public Policy Polling May 12–14, 2017 692 ± 3.7% 40% 54% 6%
Public Policy Polling April 17–18, 2017 648 ± 3.9% 40% 54% 6%
Public Policy Polling March 27–28, 2017 677 ± 3.8% 40% 54% 6%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Joe
Biden (D)
Michael
Bloomberg (I)
Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios October 24–29, 2018 3,064 43% 44% 10% 3%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Michael
Bloomberg (D)
Undecided
Zogby Analytics October 15–17, 2018 848 ± 3.4% 40% 43% 16%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Richard
Blumenthal (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling August 18–21, 2017 887 ± 3.3% 39% 42% 19%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Cory
Booker (D)
Undecided
Morning Consult August 16–18, 2018 1,974 ± 2.0% 29% 27% 44%
Public Policy Polling June 8–10, 2018 679 ± 3.8% 39% 47% 15%
Zogby Analytics May 10–12, 2018 881 ± 3.2% 38% 38% 24%
Public Policy Polling March 23–25, 2018 846 ± 3.4% 39% 49% 12%
Public Policy Polling February 9–11, 2018 687 ± 3.7% 42% 46% 11%
Public Policy Polling December 11–12, 2017 862 ± 3.3% 40% 50% 10%
Public Policy Polling October 27–29, 2017 572 ± 4.1% 38% 49% 13%
Public Policy Polling September 22–25, 2017 865 ± 3.3% 40% 47% 13%
Public Policy Polling August 18–21, 2017 887 ± 3.3% 39% 42% 19%
Public Policy Polling July 14–17, 2017 836 ± 3.4% 40% 45% 15%
Public Policy Polling June 9–11, 2017 811 ± 3.4% 41% 43% 17%
Public Policy Polling May 12–14, 2017 692 ± 3.7% 39% 46% 15%
Public Policy Polling April 17–18, 2017 648 ± 3.9% 42% 42% 17%
Public Policy Polling March 27–28, 2017 677 ± 3.8% 42% 45% 13%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Steve
Bullock (D)
Undecided
Morning Consult August 16–18, 2018 1,974 ± 2.0% 28% 18% 54%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
"Stephanie
Clifford" (D)
"Stormy
Daniels" (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 23–25, 2018 846 ± 3.4% 41% 42% 17%
41% 32% 27%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios October 28–30, 2018 2,942 45% 50% 5%
Public Policy Polling September 22–25, 2017 865 ± 3.3% 42% 47% 11%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Mark
Cuban (D)
Undecided
Emerson College October 12–14, 2017 820 ± 3.4% 43% 36% 22%
Public Policy Polling August 18–21, 2017 887 ± 3.3% 38% 42% 20%
Public Policy Polling February 21–22, 2017 941 ± 3.2% 41% 40% 19%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Andrew
Cuomo (D)
Undecided
Morning Consult August 16–18, 2018 1,974 ± 2.0% 30% 25% 45%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
John
Delaney (D)
Undecided
Morning Consult August 16–18, 2018 1,974 ± 2.0% 28% 18% 53%
Public Policy Polling August 18–21, 2017 887 ± 3.3% 38% 38% 24%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Al
Franken (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 12–14, 2017 692 ± 3.7% 38% 46% 16%
Public Policy Polling April 17–18, 2017 648 ± 3.9% 43% 43% 14%
Public Policy Polling March 27–28, 2017 677 ± 3.8% 41% 46% 13%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kirsten
Gillibrand (D)
Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios October 28–30, 2018 2,942 44% 50% 7%
Morning Consult August 16–18, 2018 1,974 ± 2.0% 29% 24% 47%
Public Policy Polling June 8–10, 2018 679 ± 3.8% 39% 45% 16%
Public Policy Polling March 23–25, 2018 846 ± 3.4% 40% 42% 18%
Public Policy Polling February 9–11, 2018 687 ± 3.7% 43% 42% 15%
YouGov January 9, 2018 865 43% 41%
Public Policy Polling December 11–12, 2017 862 ± 3.3% 40% 47% 14%
Public Policy Polling October 27–29, 2017 572 ± 4.1% 38% 48% 14%
Public Policy Polling September 22–25, 2017 865 ± 3.3% 39% 42% 18%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios October 28–30, 2018 2,994 42% 52% 6%
Morning Consult August 16–18, 2018 1,974 ± 2.0% 29% 26% 45%
Public Policy Polling June 8–10, 2018 679 ± 3.8% 40% 45% 15%
Zogby Analytics May 10–12, 2018 881 ± 3.2% 39% 35% 26%
Public Policy Polling March 23–25, 2018 846 ± 3.4% 39% 43% 18%
Public Policy Polling February 9–11, 2018 687 ± 3.7% 43% 43% 15%
Zogby Analytics January 12–15, 2018 847 ± 3.4% 41% 42% 16%
Public Policy Polling December 11–12, 2017 862 ± 3.3% 40% 46% 13%
Public Policy Polling October 27–29, 2017 572 ± 4.1% 39% 45% 16%
Public Policy Polling September 22–25, 2017 865 ± 3.3% 40% 41% 19%
Public Policy Polling August 18–21, 2017 887 ± 3.3% 39% 39% 22%
Zogby Analytics August 4–7, 2017 1,300 38% 41% 21%
Public Policy Polling July 14–17, 2017 836 ± 3.4% 40% 41% 19%
Public Policy Polling June 9–11, 2017 811 ± 3.4% 41% 42% 18%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Eric
Holder (D)
Undecided
Morning Consult August 16–18, 2018 1,974 ± 2.0% 30% 24% 46%
Morning Consult June 14–18, 2018 1,994 ± 2.0% 37% 21% 41%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Dwayne
Johnson (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 12–14, 2017 692 ± 3.7% 37% 42% 21%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Joe
Kennedy III (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 9–11, 2018 687 ± 3.7% 43% 46% 12%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Amy
Klobuchar (D)
Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios October 28–30, 2018 2,994 42% 51% 7%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Michelle
Obama (D)
Undecided
Rasmussen Reports November 12–13, 2018 1,000 ± 3.0% 43% 50% 7%
SurveyMonkey/Axios October 28–30, 2018 2,942 42% 55% 3%
Zogby Analytics May 10–12, 2018 881 ± 3.2% 39% 48% 13%
Zogby Analytics January 12–15, 2018 847 ± 3.4% 42% 49% 9%
Zogby Analytics October 19–25, 2017 1,514 ± 2.5% 44% 47% 9%
Public Policy Polling September 22–25, 2017 865 ± 3.3% 41% 51% 9%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Other Undecided
Morning Consult August 16–18, 2018 1,974 ± 2.0% 32% 44% 24%
Public Policy Polling June 8–10, 2018 679 ± 3.8% 40% 49% 11%
Zogby Analytics May 10–12, 2018 881 ± 3.2% 37% 48% 15%
Public Policy Polling March 23–25, 2018 846 ± 3.4% 39% 55% 6%
Public Policy Polling February 9–11, 2018 687 ± 3.7% 44% 48% 8%
CNN/SSRS January 14–18, 2018 913 ± 3.8% 42% 55% 1% 1%
Zogby Analytics January 12–15, 2018 847 ± 3.4% 39% 52% 10%
YouGov January 9, 2018 865 43% 48%
Public Policy Polling December 11–12, 2017 862 ± 3.3% 40% 53% 6%
Morning Consult November 16–19, 2017 2,586 ± 2.0% 36% 42% 22%
Public Policy Polling October 27–29, 2017 572 ± 4.1% 38% 53% 9%
Zogby Analytics October 19–25, 2017 1,514 ± 2.5% 40% 51% 9%
Public Policy Polling September 22–25, 2017 865 ± 3.3% 40% 51% 9%
Public Policy Polling August 18–21, 2017 887 ± 3.3% 38% 51% 11%
Public Policy Polling July 14–17, 2017 836 ± 3.4% 39% 52% 9%
Public Policy Polling June 9–11, 2017 811 ± 3.4% 41% 51% 8%
Public Policy Polling May 12–14, 2017 692 ± 3.7% 39% 52% 9%
Public Policy Polling April 17–18, 2017 648 ± 3.9% 41% 50% 8%
Public Policy Polling March 27–28, 2017 677 ± 3.8% 41% 52% 7%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios October 24–29, 2018 3,064 47% 49% 4%
Rasmussen Reports October 17–18, 2018 1,000 ± 3.0% 44% 46% 9%
Morning Consult August 16–18, 2018 1,974 ± 2.0% 30% 34% 36%
Public Policy Polling June 8–10, 2018 679 ± 3.8% 40% 48% 12%
Zogby Analytics May 10–12, 2018 881 ± 3.2% 37% 43% 20%
Public Policy Polling March 23–25, 2018 846 ± 3.4% 40% 51% 9%
Public Policy Polling February 9–11, 2018 687 ± 3.7% 44% 44% 12%
Zogby Analytics January 12–15, 2018 847 ± 3.4% 40% 50% 10%
Public Policy Polling (D-PCCC) January 9–10, 2018 620 ± 3.9% 43% 49% 8%
Public Policy Polling December 11–12, 2017 862 ± 3.3% 42% 51% 7%
Public Policy Polling October 27–29, 2017 572 ± 4.1% 40% 50% 9%
Zogby Analytics October 19–25, 2017 1,514 ± 2.5% 43% 45% 13%
Emerson College October 12–14, 2017 820 ± 3.4% 44% 44% 12%
GQR Research/Democracy Corps September 3 – October 6, 2017 1,000 42% 54% 1% 2%
Public Policy Polling September 22–25, 2017 865 ± 3.3% 41% 47% 12%
Public Policy Polling August 18–21, 2017 887 ± 3.3% 40% 45% 15%
Zogby Analytics August 4–7, 2017 1,300 37% 46% 17%
Public Policy Polling July 14–17, 2017 836 ± 3.4% 42% 49% 9%
Public Policy Polling June 9–11, 2017 811 ± 3.4% 43% 46% 11%
Public Policy Polling May 12–14, 2017 692 ± 3.7% 39% 49% 12%
Public Policy Polling April 17–18, 2017 648 ± 3.9% 42% 46% 13%
Public Policy Polling March 27–28, 2017 677 ± 3.8% 43% 48% 9%
Morning Consult February 9–10, 2017 1,791 ± 2.0% 42% 36% 22%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Michael
Bloomberg (I)
Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios October 24–29, 2018 3,064 45% 34% 17% 4%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Frederica
Wilson (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling October 27–29, 2017 572 ± 4.1% 39% 42% 19%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Oprah
Winfrey (D)
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios October 28–30, 2018 2,994 41% 53% 5%
Zogby Analytics May 10–12, 2018 881 ± 3.2% 47% 53%
CNN/SSRS January 14–18, 2018 913 ± 3.8% 42% 51% 2% 1%
Quinnipiac University January 12–16, 2018 1,212 ± 3.4% 39% 52% 2% 4%
Morning Consult January 11–16, 2018 1,993 ± 2.0% 38% 40% 22%
Zogby Analytics January 12–15, 2018 847 ± 3.4% 46% 54%
Public Policy Polling (D-PCCC) January 9–10, 2018 620 ± 3.9% 43% 44% 13%
Marist College January 8–10, 2018 1,092 ± 3.0% 39% 50% 11%
YouGov January 9, 2018 865 43% 47%
Rasmussen Reports January 8–9, 2018 1,000 ± 3.0% 38% 48% 14%
Zogby Analytics March 27–29, 2017 1,531 ± 2.5% 36% 46% 18%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Mark
Zuckerberg (D)
Undecided
Zogby Analytics January 12–15, 2018 847 ± 3.4% 40% 41% 19%
Zogby Analytics August 4–7, 2017 1,300 40% 43% 16%
Public Policy Polling July 14–17, 2017 836 ± 3.4% 40% 40% 20%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Mark
Zuckerberg (D)
Joe
Scarborough (I)
Undecided
Zogby Analytics August 4–7, 2017 1,300 36% 34% 18% 12%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
Garin-Hart-Yang/Global Strategy Group (D-Priorities USA) November 9–11, 2018 1,016 40% 49% 11%
Global Strategy Group/GBA Strategies August 2–5, 2018 1,128 30% 44% 24%
Morning Consult July 26–30, 2018 1,993 ± 2.0% 35% 48% 17%
Morning Consult June 14–18, 2018 1,994 ± 2.0% 36% 44% 20%
Morning Consult May 17–19, 2018 1,990 ± 2.0% 36% 44% 20%
Morning Consult March 1–5, 2018 1,993 ± 2.0% 36% 44% 19%
Rasmussen Reports February 27–28, 2018 1,000 ± 3.0% 44% 47% 9%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal December 13–15, 2017 736 ± 3.6% 36% 52% 5%
Morning Consult November 16–19, 2017 2,586 ± 2.0% 35% 44% 21%
Morning Consult November 9–11, 2017 1,993 ± 2.0% 34% 48% 18%
Opinion Savvy August 16–17, 2017 763 ± 3.5% 41% 52% 8%
Gravis Marketing July 21–31, 2017 1,917 ± 2.2% 39% 48% 13%
Morning Consult February 9–10, 2017 1,791 ± 2.0% 35% 43% 23%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mike
Pence (R)
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
Opinion Savvy August 16–17, 2017 763 ± 3.5% 40% 52% 8%

Statewide polling

Statewide polling
California
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Joe
Biden (D)
Undecided
SurveyUSA March 22–25, 2018 882 ± 3.8% 33% 56% 11%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Jerry
Brown (D)
Undecided
SurveyUSA March 22–25, 2018 882 ± 3.8% 35% 54% 11%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Sherrod
Brown (D)
Undecided
SurveyUSA March 22–25, 2018 882 ± 3.8% 35% 36% 29%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Cory
Booker (D)
Undecided
SurveyUSA March 22–25, 2018 882 ± 3.8% 35% 39% 26%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Eric
Garcetti (D)
Undecided
SurveyUSA March 22–25, 2018 882 ± 3.8% 34% 49% 17%
SurveyUSA January 7–9, 2018 909 ± 3.3% 32% 46% 21%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kirsten
Gillibrand (D)
Undecided
SurveyUSA March 22–25, 2018 882 ± 3.8% 33% 47% 19%
SurveyUSA January 7–9, 2018 909 ± 3.3% 32% 46% 22%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Tom
Hanks (D)
Undecided
SurveyUSA March 22–25, 2018 882 ± 3.8% 34% 51% 15%
SurveyUSA January 7–9, 2018 909 ± 3.3% 31% 56% 14%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Undecided
SurveyUSA March 22–25, 2018 882 ± 3.8% 35% 54% 12%
SurveyUSA January 7–9, 2018 909 ± 3.3% 33% 53% 13%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Eric
Holder (D)
Undecided
SurveyUSA March 22–25, 2018 882 ± 3.8% 35% 38% 26%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Mitch
Landrieu (D)
Undecided
SurveyUSA March 22–25, 2018 882 ± 3.8% 35% 36% 29%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Michelle
Obama (D)
Undecided
SurveyUSA March 22–25, 2018 882 ± 3.8% 36% 57% 8%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Deval
Patrick (D)
Undecided
SurveyUSA March 22–25, 2018 882 ± 3.8% 34% 34% 32%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
SurveyUSA January 7–9, 2018 909 ± 3.3% 32% 53% 14%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Oprah
Winfrey (D)
Undecided
SurveyUSA March 22–25, 2018 882 ± 3.8% 35% 52% 13%
SurveyUSA January 7–9, 2018 909 ± 3.3% 32% 56% 12%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Mark
Zuckerberg (D)
Undecided
SurveyUSA March 22–25, 2018 882 ± 3.8% 36% 42% 22%
SurveyUSA January 7–9, 2018 909 ± 3.3% 31% 50% 19%
Florida
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
Zogby Analytics August 17–23, 2017 828 ± 3.4% 39% 48% 14%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Oprah
Winfrey (D)
Other Undecided
Dixie Strategies January 9–10, 2018 785 ± 3.5% 48% 24% 15% 13%
Indiana
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
Zogby Analytics August 17–23, 2017 603 ± 4.0% 45% 39% 17%
Kentucky
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
Zogby Analytics August 17–23, 2017 402 ± 4.9% 47% 41% 13%
Michigan
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Joe
Biden (D)
Undecided
EPIC-MRA April 28–30, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 39% 52% 9%
Zogby Analytics September 2017 800 35% 52% 13%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Undecided
Zogby Analytics September 2017 800 36% 54% 10%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
Zogby Analytics September 2017 800 37% 46% 17%
Zogby Analytics August 17–23, 2017 803 ± 3.5% 35% 51% 14%
Minnesota
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-A Better Minnesota) June 15–16, 2018 717 41% 51% 8%
Missouri
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
Zogby Analytics August 17–23, 2017 604 ± 4.0% 40% 46% 14%
Montana
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
Zogby Analytics August 17–23, 2017 403 ± 4.9% 45% 39% 17%
New Hampshire
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Joe
Biden (D)
Undecided
American Research Group March 21–27, 2018 1,365 ± 3.0% 39% 53% 8%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Undecided
American Research Group March 21–27, 2018 1,365 ± 3.0% 49% 45% 5%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
American Research Group March 21–27, 2018 1,365 ± 3.0% 50% 42% 9%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
John
Kasich (R)
Joe
Biden (D)
Undecided
American Research Group March 21–27, 2018 1,365 ± 3.0% 45% 46% 8%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
John
Kasich (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
American Research Group March 21–27, 2018 1,365 ± 3.0% 52% 37% 11%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
Praecones Analytica August 13–15, 2018 626 ± 5.4% 38% 49% 13%
North Carolina
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Joe
Biden (D)
Other Undecided
Meredith College January 21–25, 2018 621 ± 4.0% 45% 46% 8% 1%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Roy
Cooper (D)
Other Undecided
Meredith College January 21–25, 2018 621 ± 4.0% 45% 43% 11% 1%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kirsten
Gillibrand (D)
Other Undecided
Meredith College January 21–25, 2018 621 ± 4.0% 46% 36% 18% 1%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Other Undecided
Meredith College January 21–25, 2018 621 ± 4.0% 48% 40% 12% 1%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Oprah
Winfrey (D)
Other Undecided
Meredith College January 21–25, 2018 621 ± 4.0% 48% 38% 12% 2%
North Dakota
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
Zogby Analytics August 17–23, 2017 403 ± 4.9% 47% 36% 17%
Ohio
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Joe
Biden (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 27–28, 2018 648 ± 3.9% 44% 48% 8%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Sherrod
Brown (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 27–28, 2018 648 ± 3.9% 42% 48% 10%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 27–28, 2018 648 ± 3.9% 46% 47% 7%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 27–28, 2018 648 ± 3.9% 49% 43% 9%
Zogby Analytics August 17–23, 2017 805 ± 3.5% 40% 44% 16%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Democrat
Other Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University April 24 – May 2, 2018 811 ± 3.5% 41% 44% 6% 9%
Baldwin Wallace University February 28 – March 9, 2018 1,011 ± 3.0% 34% 32%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
John
Kasich (R)
Generic
Democrat
Other Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University April 24 – May 2, 2018 811 ± 3.5% 37% 31% 13% 19%
Baldwin Wallace University February 28 – March 9, 2018 1,011 ± 3.0% 41% 20% 12%
Pennsylvania
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
Zogby Analytics August 17–23, 2017 813 ± 3.4% 38% 46% 16%
Texas
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Mark
Cuban (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling December 2017 44% 47%
Wisconsin
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
Zogby Analytics August 17–23, 2017 603 ± 4.0% 37% 48% 15%
West Virginia
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
Zogby Analytics August 17–23, 2017 401 ± 4.9% 43% 40% 17%

Nominations

Republican Party

Donald Trump is eligible to run for reelection and intends to do so.[8] His reelection campaign has been ongoing since his victory in 2016, leading pundits to describe his tactic of holding rallies continuously throughout his presidency as a "never-ending campaign".[9] On January 20, 2017, at 5:11 PM, he submitted a letter as a substitute of FEC Form 2, for which he had reached the legal threshold for filing, in compliance with the Federal Election Campaign Act.[10]

Beginning in August 2017, reports arose that members of the Republican Party were preparing a "shadow campaign" against Trump, particularly from the moderate or establishment wings of the party.[11] A poor showing for the GOP in the 2018 midterm elections may lead to an influx of ambitious politicians vying to reclaim the nomination from Trump, as Arizona Senator John McCain said that "[Republicans] see weakness in this president." Maine Senator Susan Collins, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie have all expressed doubts that Trump will be the 2020 nominee, with Collins stating "it's too difficult to say."[12][13] Meanwhile, Senator Jeff Flake has claimed that Trump is "inviting" a primary challenger by the way he is governing.[14] Longtime political strategist Roger Stone, however, predicts that Trump may not seek a second term if he succeeds in keeping all of his campaign promises and "[makes] America great again", à la James K. Polk.[15]

Declared major candidates

The candidates in this section have held public office or been included in a minimum of five independent national polls.

Name Born Current or previous positions State Announced Ref
Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Donald Trump
June 14, 1946
(age 72)
New York City, New York
President of the United States since 2017
Candidate for President in 2000
Flag of New York.svg
New York
August 19, 2016
TrumpPence20logo.svg
(CampaignWebsite)
FEC Filing
[16]

Individuals who have publicly expressed interest

Individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the last six months.

Convention site

On July 20, 2018, the Republican National Convention chose Charlotte, North Carolina as the site for their 2020 national convention.[21] The convention will be held from August 24 until August 27, 2020.[22]

Endorsements

Donald Trump

Democratic Party

After Hillary Clinton's loss in the previous election, the Democratic Party was seen largely as leaderless[23] and fractured between the centrist Clinton wing and the more progressive Sanders wing of the party, echoing the rift brought up in the 2016 primary election.[24][25]

This establishment/progressive divide was reflected in several elections leading up to the 2020 primaries. Most notably in 2017 with the election for DNC Chair between Tom Perez and Sanders-backed progressive Keith Ellison.[26] Perez was elected Chairman, but Ellison was appointed as the Deputy Chair, a largely ceremonial role. In 2018, several U.S. House districts that Democrats are hoping to gain from the Republican majority had contentious primary elections. These clashes were described by Politico's Elena Schneider as a "Democratic civil war."[27] Meanwhile there has been a general shift to the left in regards to college tuition, healthcare, and immigration among Democrats in the Senate, likely to build up credentials for the upcoming primary election.[28][29]

Perez has commented that the 2020 primary field will likely go into double-digits, rivaling the size of the 2016 GOP primary, which consisted of 17 major candidates.[30] In the wake of the Me Too movement, several female candidates are expected to enter the race, increasing the likelihood of the Democrats nominating a woman for the second time in a row.[31] Speculation also mounted that Democrats' best bet to defeat President Trump would be to nominate their own celebrity or businessperson with no government experience, most notably Oprah Winfrey after her memorable speech at the 75th Golden Globe Awards.[32]

The topic of age has been brought up among the most likely front-runners: former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren, and senator Sanders; who will be 78, 71, and 79 respectively on inauguration day. Former Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (who will be aged 81 on inauguration day) described the trio as "an old folks' home", expressing a need for fresh faces to step up and lead the party.[33]

Declared major candidates

The candidates in this section have held public office or been included in a minimum of five independent national polls.

Name Born Current or previous positions State Announced Ref
John Delaney 113th Congress official photo.jpg
John Delaney
April 16, 1963
(age 55)
Wood-Ridge, New Jersey
U.S. Representative from Maryland since 2013 Flag of Maryland.svg
Maryland
July 28, 2017
Delaney 2020.png
(CampaignWebsite)
FEC Filing
[34]
MAJ Richard Ojeda.jpg
Richard Ojeda
October 25, 1970
(age 48)
Rochester, Minnesota
West Virginia State Senate Member since 2016
Democratic nominee for U.S. Representative from West Virginia in 2018
Flag of West Virginia.svg
West Virginia
November 11, 2018
(Website)
FEC Filing
[35]

Other declared candidates

According to the New York Times, over four hundred people have sent the requisite paperwork to the Federal Election Commission. The following candidates are notable enough to have Wikipedia pages.

Name Born Current or previous positions State Announced
Michael E. Arth in New Smyrna Beach, FL. Taken on March 1, 2018, by Shasta Solis. 01.jpg
Michael E. Arth
April 27, 1953
(age 65)
Burtonwood, England
Urban designer & public policy analyst
Candidate for Governor of Florida in 2010
Flag of Florida.svg
Florida
November 4, 2018
(Website)
FEC filing[36]
Ken-E-Nwadike-Jr-motivational-speaker.jpg
Ken Nwadike
December 29, 1981
(age 36)
San Diego, California
Peace activist, inspirational speaker, video journalist Flag of California.svg
California
October 18, 2017
(Website)
FEC Filing
Robby Wells.PNG
Robby Wells
April 10, 1968
(age 50)
Bartow, Georgia
Former college football coach
Natural Law nominee for U.S. Representative from California in 1996
Candidate for President in 2012 and 2016
Flag of Georgia (U.S. state).svg
Georgia
May 24, 2017
(Website)
FEC Filing
Andrew Yang talking about urban entrepreneurship at Techonomy Conference 2015 in Detroit, MI (cropped).jpg
Andrew Yang
January 13, 1975
(age 43)
Schenectady, New York
Entrepreneur and lawyer who is the founder of Venture for America Flag of New York.svg
New York
November 6, 2017
Andrew Yang 2020 logo.png
(Website)
FEC Filing

Individuals who are formally exploring a candidacy

Individuals who have publicly expressed interest

Individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the last six months.

Potential convention sites

Bids for the National Convention were solicited in the fall of 2017, with finalists being announced in June 2018. The winning bid was supposed to be revealed in the summer of 2018.

Endorsements

John Delaney
Individuals
Andrew Yang
Individuals

Libertarian Party

Declared candidates

These candidates have established campaign websites.

Name Born Current or previous positions State Announced Ref
Kokesh2013.jpg
Adam Kokesh
February 1, 1982
(age 36)
San Francisco, California
Libertarian and anti-war political activist
Candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018
Candidate for U.S. Representative from New Mexico in 2010
Flag of Arizona.svg
Arizona
July 18, 2013
(CampaignWebsite)
FEC Filing
[108]
Lozwp DSC00677.jpg
Vermin Supreme
June 1961
(age 57)
Rockport, Massachusetts
Performance artist and activist
Candidate for President in 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016
Candidate for Mayor of Detroit, Michigan in 1989
Candidate for Mayor of Baltimore, Maryland in 1987
Flag of Kansas.svg
Kansas
May 28, 2018
Vermin Supreme A Dictator You Can Trust.jpg
(Website)
[109]
Arvin Vohra.png
Arvin Vohra
May 9, 1979
(age 39)
Silver Spring, Maryland
Vice Chair of the LNC 2014–2018
Libertarian nominee for U.S. Senate from Maryland in 2018
Libertarian nominee for U.S. Representative in 2012 and 2014
Candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016
Flag of Maryland.svg
Maryland
July 3, 2018
(Website)
[110]

Convention site

On December 10, 2017, the Libertarian National Committee chose Austin, Texas as the site of their 2020 national convention. The convention will be held between May 22–25, 2020.[111][112]

American Solidarity Party

Declared candidates

Green Party

Independent or unaffiliated

Individuals who have publicly expressed interest

Individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the last six months.

Maps

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c This individual is not a member of the Democratic Party, but has been the subject of speculation or expressed interest in running under this party.

References

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