The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient Roman saying expressing the European presumption that black swans did not exist until Dutch mariners saw them in Australia in 1697, and the term was then reinterpreted to mean an unforeseen and consequential event.

The black swan is a large waterbird, a species of swan which breeds mainly in the southeast and southwest regions of Australia. Within Australia, the black swan is nomadic, with erratic migration patterns dependent on climatic conditions. It is a large bird with black plumage and a red bill. It is a monogamous breeder, with both partners sharing incubation and cygnet-rearing duties.