Black swan theory
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The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with t
A black swan (Cygnus atratus) in Tasmania, Australia
Two white mute swans (Cygnus olor) in Italy
Dragon king theory
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A dragon king event is one that is both extremely large in size or effect and born of unique origins relative to other events from the same system. DK events are generated by or correspond to mechanis
Black swan theory
…Domino effect – Cumulative effect produced when one event sets off a chain of other events Dragon king theory – Event that is both extremely large in effect and of unique origins Extreme risk – Low-probability risk of very bad outcomes…
The taxonomy of dragon kings. Examples of systems include: A: City sizes B: Inoculation model C: Complex contagion model D: Quasicritical neuronal models, rice-pile E: BTW–Kuramoto, Facilitated sandpile