The Bradley effect is a theory concerning observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some United States government elections where a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other. The theory proposes that some white voters who intend to vote for the white candidate would nonetheless tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for the non-white candidate. It was named after Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California gubernatorial election to California attorney general George Deukmejian, a white person, despite Bradley being ahead in voter polls going into the elections.
Mayor Tom Bradley
Colin Powell was reportedly warned of the Bradley effect when he was considered to be a potential 1996 presidential candidate.
Polling numbers in Harold Ford's 2006 U.S. Senate campaign did not exhibit the Bradley effect.
Some have suggested that President Barack Obama may have encountered both the Bradley effect, and a "reverse" Bradley effect, during the 2008 Democratic presidential primary elections.
Thomas Bradley was an American politician, athlete, police officer, and lawyer who served as the 38th Mayor of Los Angeles from 1973 to 1993. Tom Bradley was Los Angeles' first Black mayor, first liberal mayor, and longest-serving mayor. A Democrat, Bradley's multiracial liberal political coalition was a forerunner of future President of the United States Barack Obama's coalition in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections.
Bradley in 1980
Bradley with his wife and daughter, 1977.
Bradley with his wife after being elected to the City Council, 1963.
Bradley sworn in as Mayor by former Chief Justice Earl Warren, 1973.