Daniel Ellsberg
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Daniel Ellsberg was an American political activist, economist, and United States military analyst. While employed by the RAND Corporation, he precipitated a national political controversy in 1971 when he released the Pentagon Papers, a top-secret Pentagon study of U.S. government decision-making in relation to the Vietnam War, to The New York Times, The Washington Post, and other newspapers.
Ellsberg, speaking at a press conference, New York City, 1972
Fielding's filing cabinet, with break-in marks, on display at the Smithsonian National Museum of American History
Artist David Rose's rendering of attorneys during the 1973 trial of Ellsberg and Russo in Los Angeles
Decision theory
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Decision theory is a branch of applied probability theory and analytic philosophy concerned with the theory of making decisions based on assigning probabilities to various factors and assigning numerical consequences to the outcome.
The mythological judgement of Paris required selecting from three incomparable alternatives (the goddesses shown).
Military planners often conduct extensive simulations to help predict the decision-making of relevant actors.
The gambler's fallacy: even when the roulette ball repeatedly lands on red, it is no more likely to land on black the next time.