1.
Charles Goodhart
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Charles Albert Eric Goodhart CBE FBA is an economist. He was a member of the Bank of Englands Monetary Policy Committee from June 1997 to May 2000 and he is the developer of Goodharts law, an economic law named after him. He is the son of Arthur Lehman Goodhart, and the brother of William Goodhart, eton College Trinity College, Cambridge Harvard Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. 1988 Goodhart, Charles, “What Weight Should Be Given to Asset Prices in the Measurement of Inflation. ”Goodhart, Charles “Is a less pro-cyclical financial system an achievable goal. ”National Institute Economic Review 211, pp
2.
United Kingdom
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The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom or Britain, is a sovereign country in western Europe. Lying off the north-western coast of the European mainland, the United Kingdom includes the island of Great Britain, Northern Ireland is the only part of the United Kingdom that shares a land border with another sovereign state—the Republic of Ireland. The Irish Sea lies between Great Britain and Ireland, with an area of 242,500 square kilometres, the United Kingdom is the 78th-largest sovereign state in the world and the 11th-largest in Europe. It is also the 21st-most populous country, with an estimated 65.1 million inhabitants, together, this makes it the fourth-most densely populated country in the European Union. The United Kingdom is a monarchy with a parliamentary system of governance. The monarch is Queen Elizabeth II, who has reigned since 6 February 1952, other major urban areas in the United Kingdom include the regions of Birmingham, Leeds, Glasgow, Liverpool and Manchester. The United Kingdom consists of four countries—England, Scotland, Wales, the last three have devolved administrations, each with varying powers, based in their capitals, Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast, respectively. The relationships among the countries of the UK have changed over time, Wales was annexed by the Kingdom of England under the Laws in Wales Acts 1535 and 1542. A treaty between England and Scotland resulted in 1707 in a unified Kingdom of Great Britain, which merged in 1801 with the Kingdom of Ireland to form the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland. Five-sixths of Ireland seceded from the UK in 1922, leaving the present formulation of the United Kingdom of Great Britain, there are fourteen British Overseas Territories. These are the remnants of the British Empire which, at its height in the 1920s, British influence can be observed in the language, culture and legal systems of many of its former colonies. The United Kingdom is a country and has the worlds fifth-largest economy by nominal GDP. The UK is considered to have an economy and is categorised as very high in the Human Development Index. It was the worlds first industrialised country and the worlds foremost power during the 19th, the UK remains a great power with considerable economic, cultural, military, scientific and political influence internationally. It is a nuclear weapons state and its military expenditure ranks fourth or fifth in the world. The UK has been a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council since its first session in 1946 and it has been a leading member state of the EU and its predecessor, the European Economic Community, since 1973. However, on 23 June 2016, a referendum on the UKs membership of the EU resulted in a decision to leave. The Acts of Union 1800 united the Kingdom of Great Britain, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have devolved self-government
3.
Margaret Thatcher
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She was the longest-serving British prime minister of the 20th century, and the first woman to have held the office. A Soviet journalist dubbed her The Iron Lady, a nickname that became associated with her uncompromising politics, as Prime Minister, she implemented policies that have come to be known as Thatcherism. A research chemist before becoming a barrister, Thatcher was elected Member of Parliament for Finchley in 1959, Edward Heath appointed her Secretary of State for Education and Science in his 1970 government. In 1975, Thatcher defeated Heath in the Conservative Party leadership election to become Leader of the Opposition and she became Prime Minister after winning the 1979 general election. Her political philosophy and economic policies emphasised deregulation, flexible labour markets, the privatisation of state-owned companies and she narrowly escaped an assassination attempt in 1984. Thatcher was re-elected for a term in 1987. During this period her support for a Community Charge was widely unpopular and she resigned as Prime Minister and party leader in November 1990, after Michael Heseltine launched a challenge to her leadership. After retiring from the Commons in 1992, she was given a peerage as Baroness Thatcher which entitled her to sit in the House of Lords. After a series of strokes in 2002, she was advised to withdraw from public speaking. Despite this, she managed to pre-record a eulogy to Ronald Reagan prior to his death, in 2013, she died of another stroke in London, at the age of 87. Always a controversial figure, she has described as one of the greatest and most influential politicians in British history. Thatcher was born Margaret Hilda Roberts on 13 October 1925, in Grantham and her father was Alfred Roberts, originally from Northamptonshire, and her mother was Beatrice Ethel from Lincolnshire. She spent her childhood in Grantham, where her father owned two grocery shops, Prior to the Second World War, in 1938 the Roberts family gave sanctuary to a teenage Jewish girl escaping Nazi Germany. Thatcher was to describe this in her memoirs as among the significant events of her formative years, Alfred Roberts was an alderman and a Methodist local preacher, and brought up his daughter as a strict Wesleyan Methodist attending the Finkin Street Methodist Church. He came from a Liberal family but stood as an Independent and he was Mayor of Grantham in 1945–46 and lost his position as alderman in 1952 after the Labour Party won its first majority on Grantham Council in 1950. Margaret Roberts attended Huntingtower Road Primary School and won a scholarship to Kesteven and her school reports showed hard work and continual improvement, her extracurricular activities included the piano, field hockey, poetry recitals, swimming and walking. She was head girl in 1942–43, in her upper sixth year she applied for a scholarship to study chemistry at Somerville College, Oxford, but she was initially rejected and was offered a place only after another candidate withdrew. Her dissertation was on the structure of the antibiotic gramicidin, even while working on chemistry, she was already thinking towards law and politics
4.
Monetarism
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Monetarism is a school of thought in monetary economics that emphasizes the role of governments in controlling the amount of money in circulation. Monetarist theory asserts that variations in the supply have major influences on national output in the short run. Monetarists assert that the objectives of monetary policy are best met by targeting the growth rate of the supply rather than by engaging in discretionary monetary policy. Friedman and Anna Schwartz wrote a book, A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960. Monetarism is a theory that focuses on the macroeconomic effects of the supply of money. Formulated by Milton Friedman, it argues that excessive expansion of the supply is inherently inflationary. The result was summarised in a analysis of monetary policy, Monetary History of the United States 1867–1960. The book attributed inflation to excess money supply generated by a central bank and it attributed deflationary spirals to the reverse effect of a failure of a central bank to support the money supply during a liquidity crunch. Friedman originally proposed a fixed rule, called Friedmans k-percent rule. Under this rule, there would be no leeway for the reserve bank, as money supply increases could be determined by a computer. With other monetarists he believed that the manipulation of the money supply or its growth rate is more likely to destabilise than stabilise the economy. Most monetarists oppose the gold standard, Friedman, for example, viewed a pure gold standard as impractical. Clark Warburton is credited with making the first solid empirical case for the monetarist interpretation of business fluctuations in a series of papers from 1945. p,493 Within mainstream economics, the rise of monetarism accelerated from Milton Friedmans 1956 restatement of the quantity theory of money. Friedman argued that the demand for money could be described as depending on a number of economic variables. Thus, where the money supply expanded, people would not simply wish to hold the money in idle money balances. These excess money balances would therefore be spent and hence aggregate demand would rise, similarly, if the money supply were reduced people would want to replenish their holdings of money by reducing their spending. In this, Friedman challenged a simplification attributed to Keynes suggesting that money does not matter, thus the word monetarist was coined. On the one hand, higher unemployment seemed to call for Keynesian reflation, in 1979, President Jimmy Carter appointed a Federal Reserve chief Paul Volcker, who made inflation fighting his primary objective, and restricted the money supply to tame inflation in the economy
5.
Economics
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Economics is a social science concerned chiefly with description and analysis of the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services according to the Merriam-Webster Dictionary. Economics focuses on the behaviour and interactions of economic agents and how economies work, consistent with this focus, textbooks often distinguish between microeconomics and macroeconomics. Microeconomics examines the behaviour of elements in the economy, including individual agents and markets, their interactions. Individual agents may include, for example, households, firms, buyers, macroeconomics analyzes the entire economy and issues affecting it, including unemployment of resources, inflation, economic growth, and the public policies that address these issues. Economic analysis can be applied throughout society, as in business, finance, health care, Economic analyses may also be applied to such diverse subjects as crime, education, the family, law, politics, religion, social institutions, war, science, and the environment. At the turn of the 21st century, the domain of economics in the social sciences has been described as economic imperialism. The ultimate goal of economics is to improve the conditions of people in their everyday life. There are a variety of definitions of economics. Some of the differences may reflect evolving views of the subject or different views among economists, to supply the state or commonwealth with a revenue for the publick services. Say, distinguishing the subject from its uses, defines it as the science of production, distribution. On the satirical side, Thomas Carlyle coined the dismal science as an epithet for classical economics, in this context and it enquires how he gets his income and how he uses it. Thus, it is on the one side, the study of wealth and on the other and more important side, a part of the study of man. He affirmed that previous economists have usually centred their studies on the analysis of wealth, how wealth is created, distributed, and consumed, but he said that economics can be used to study other things, such as war, that are outside its usual focus. This is because war has as the goal winning it, generates both cost and benefits, and, resources are used to attain the goal. If the war is not winnable or if the costs outweigh the benefits. Some subsequent comments criticized the definition as overly broad in failing to limit its subject matter to analysis of markets, there are other criticisms as well, such as in scarcity not accounting for the macroeconomics of high unemployment. The same source reviews a range of included in principles of economics textbooks. Among economists more generally, it argues that a particular definition presented may reflect the direction toward which the author believes economics is evolving, microeconomics examines how entities, forming a market structure, interact within a market to create a market system
6.
Rational expectations
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In economics, rational expectations are model-consistent expectations, in that agents inside the model on average assume the models predictions are valid. Rational expectations ensure internal consistency in aggregate stochastic models, to obtain consistency within a model, the predictions of the future value of economically relevant variables are optimal given the decision-makers information set and model structure. The rational expectations assumption is used especially in many contemporary macroeconomic models, Rational expectations does not imply individual rationality and should not be confused with rational choice theory, which is used extensively in, among others, game theory. Since most macroeconomic models today study decisions over many periods, the expectations of workers, consumers, how to model these expectations has long been controversial, and it is well known that the macroeconomic predictions of the model may differ depending on the assumptions made about expectations. To assume rational expectations is to assume that agents expectations may be wrong and this way of modeling expectations was originally proposed by John F. Muth and later became influential when it was used by Robert Lucas, Jr. and others. Modeling expectations is crucial in all models which study how a number of individuals, firms. The notion is one of intellectual modesty, the common sense is rationality, therefore Muth called the argument rational expectations. Rational expectations theory defines this kind of expectations as being the best guess of the future that all available information. Thus, it is assumed that outcomes that are being forecast do not differ systematically from the equilibrium results. As a result, rational expectations do not differ systematically or predictably from equilibrium results and that is, it assumes that people do not make systematic errors when predicting the future, and deviations from perfect foresight are only random. In an economic model, this is typically modelled by assuming that the value of a variable is equal to the expected value predicted by the model. For example, suppose that P is the price in a simple market, determined by supply. Rational expectations theories were developed in response to perceived flaws in theories based on adaptive expectations, under adaptive expectations, expectations of the future value of an economic variable are based on past values. For example, people would be assumed to predict inflation by looking at inflation last year, under adaptive expectations, if the economy suffers from constantly rising inflation rates, people would be assumed to always underestimate inflation. Many economists have regarded this as unrealistic, believing that individuals would sooner or later realize the trend. The rational expectations hypothesis has been used to some strong conclusions about economic policymaking. An example is the policy ineffectiveness proposition developed by Thomas Sargent and this in turn will counteract the expansionary effect of the increased money supply. All that the government can do is raise the inflation rate and this is a distinctly New Classical outcome
7.
Profit (economics)
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Profit or normal profit is a component of costs and not a component of business profit at all. It represents the opportunity cost, as the time that the owner spends running the firm could be spent on running a different firm. In other words, the cost of normal profit varies both within and across industries, it is commensurate with the associated with each type of investment. Only normal profits arise in circumstances of perfect competition when long-run economic equilibrium is reached, the same is likewise true of the long run equilibria of monopolistically competitive industries and, more generally, any market which is held to be contestable. Normally, a firm that introduces a differentiated product can initially secure a temporary power for a short while. At this stage, the price the consumer must pay for the product is high. When this finally occurs, all monopoly associated with producing and selling the product disappears. Profit can, however, occur in competitive and contestable markets in the short run, economic profit is, however, much more prevalent in uncompetitive markets such as in a perfect monopoly or oligopoly situation. This allows the firm to set a price which is higher than that which would be found in a similar but more competitive industry, allowing them economic profit in both the long and short run. In a single-goods case, an economic profit happens when the firms average cost is less than the price of the product or service at the profit-maximizing output. The economic profit is equal to the quantity of output multiplied by the difference between the average cost and the price, often, governments will try to intervene in uncompetitive markets to make them more competitive. Antitrust or competition laws were created to prevent powerful firms from using their power to artificially create the barriers to entry they need to protect their economic profits. This includes the use of predatory pricing toward smaller competitors, with lower barriers, new firms can enter the market again, making the long run equilibrium much more like that of a competitive industry, with no economic profit for firms. For example, the old AT&T monopoly, which existed before the courts ordered its breakup, had to get government approval to raise its prices. Though a regulated firm will not have a profit as large as it would in an unregulated situation. The social profit from a firms activities is the normal profit plus or minus any externalities or consumer surpluses that occur in its activity, a firm may report relatively large monetary profits, but by creating negative externalities their social profit could be relatively small. Profitability is a term of economic efficiency, mathematically it is a relative index – a fraction with profit as numerator and generating profit flows or assets as denominator. It is a standard economic assumption that, other things being equal, given that profit is defined as the difference in total revenue and total cost, a firm achieves a maximum by operating at the point where the difference between the two is at its greatest
8.
Jon Danielsson
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Jon Danielsson is an Icelandic economist teaching in the UK and active in the domestic and international policy debate. Danielsson is the director of the Systemic Risk Centre at the London School of Economics and he has written extensively on the post-crash situation in Iceland. Based at the London School of Economics, the Centre is generously funded by ESRC with an budget of £1 million. Current events schedule can be found on its website, jon has authored a series of discussion papers on risk and models as well as appearing in notable events with major policy makers. Jon Danielsson received his Ph. D. in the economics of financial markets from Duke University in 1991, fat Tails, VaR and Subadditivity,2013, with Casper de Vries, Bjorn Jorgensen, Gennady Samorodnitsky and Sarma Mandira. Risk Models-at-Risk,2014, with Christophe M. Boucher, Patrick S. Kouontchou, international Journal of Forecasting “Endogenous and Systemic Risk,2012, with Hyun Song Shin and Jean–Pierre Zigrand, NBER Volume on Measuring Systemic Risk, University of Chicago Press. Endogenous Extreme Events and the Dual Role of Prices,2012 with Jean–Pierre Zigrand and Hyun Song Shin, Annual Reviews in Economics, on the Impact of Fundamentals, Liquidity and Coordination on Market Stability, with Francisco Penaranda,2011. Webpage at LSE Research papers Webpage at the Systemic Risk Centre JonDanielsson on Twitter
9.
Reflexivity (social theory)
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Reflexivity refers to circular relationships between cause and effect. A reflexive relationship is bidirectional with both the cause and the effect affecting one another in a relationship in which neither can be assigned as causes or effects. In sociology, reflexivity therefore comes to mean an act of self-reference where examination or action bends back on, refers to, to this extent it commonly refers to the capacity of an agent to recognize forces of socialization and alter their place in the social structure. A low level of reflexivity would result in an individual shaped largely by their environment, a high level of social reflexivity would be defined by an individual shaping their own norms, tastes, politics, desires, and so on. This is similar to the notion of autonomy and this is an instance of a positive feedback loop. Thus for example an anthropologist living in a village may affect the village. The observations are not independent of the participation of the observer, Reflexivity is, therefore, a methodological issue in the social sciences analogous to the observer effect. Reflexivity includes both a process of self-consciousness inquiry and the study of social behavior with reference to theories about social relationships. The principle of reflexivity was perhaps first enunciated by the sociologist William Thomas as the Thomas theorem, the prophecy has a constitutive impact on the outcome or result, changing the outcome from what would otherwise have happened. Reflexivity was taken up as an issue in science in general by Karl Popper, who called it the Oedipal effect, the problem is even more difficult in the social sciences. Giddens accentuated this theme with his notion of reflexive modernity – the argument that, over time, society is becoming increasingly more self-aware, reflective, for Bourdieu, therefore, reflexivity is part of the solution, not the problem. Michel Foucaults The Order of Things can be said to touch on the issue of Reflexivity, foucault examines the history of Western thought since the Renaissance and argues that each historical epoch has an episteme, or a historical a priori, that structures and organizes knowledge. Foucault argues that the concept of man emerged in the early 19th century, what he calls the Age of Man and he regards his insights into market behaviour from applying the principle as a major factor in the success of his financial career. Reflexivity is inconsistent with equilibrium theory, which stipulates that markets move towards equilibrium, in equilibrium theory, prices in the long run at equilibrium reflect the underlying fundamentals, which are unaffected by prices. Because the pattern is self-reinforcing, markets tend towards disequilibrium, Soros has often claimed that his grasp of the principle of reflexivity is what has given him his edge and that it is the major factor contributing to his successes as a trader. The perception that China is the weakest link in the economy dominated the International Monetary Fund annual meeting in Peru in October 2015. Kaletsky claims that suspect but powerful financial feedback perceptions are constantly self-reinforced, according to Soros concept of reflexivity, financial markets can create inaccurate expectations and then change reality to accord with them. This is the opposite of the process described in textbooks and built into economic models, in 2009, Soros funded the launch of the Institute for New Economic Thinking with the hope that it would develop reflexivity further
10.
Overfitting
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In statistics and machine learning, one of the most common tasks is to fit a model to a set of training data, so as to be able to make reliable predictions on general untrained data. In overfitting, a statistical model describes random error or noise instead of the underlying relationship, Overfitting occurs when a model is excessively complex, such as having too many parameters relative to the number of observations. A model that has been overfit has poor predictive performance, as it overreacts to minor fluctuations in the training data, underfitting occurs when a statistical model or machine learning algorithm cannot capture the underlying trend of the data. Underfitting would occur, for example, when fitting a linear model to non-linear data, such a model would have poor predictive performance. The possibility of overfitting exists because the used for training the model is not the same as the criterion used to judge the efficacy of a model. In particular, a model is typically trained by maximizing its performance on set of training data. However, its efficacy is determined not by its performance on the training data, Overfitting occurs when a model begins to memorize training data rather than learning to generalize from trend. In particular, the value of the coefficient of determination will shrink relative to the training data. In order to avoid overfitting, it is necessary to use additional techniques, if we keep showing the same windows the baby may also falsely deduce that all windows are green, and that all green frames are windows. Usually a learning algorithm is trained using some set of training data, the goal is that the algorithm will also perform well on predicting the output when fed validation data that was not encountered during its training. For an example there are too many adjustable parameters, consider a dataset where training data for y can be adequately predicted by a linear function of two dependent variables. Such a function requires only three parameters, when comparing different types of models, complexity cannot be measured solely by counting how many parameters exist in each model, the expressivity of each parameter must be considered as well. For example, it is nontrivial to directly compare the complexity of a net with m parameters to a regression model with n parameters. In this process of overfitting, the performance on the examples still increases while the performance on unseen data becomes worse. As a simple example, consider a database of retail purchases that includes the item bought, the purchaser, generally, a learning algorithm is said to overfit relative to a simpler one if it is more accurate in fitting known data but less accurate in predicting new data. Everything else being equal, the more difficult a criterion is to predict, the problem is determining which part to ignore. A learning algorithm that can reduce the chance of fitting noise is called robust, the most obvious consequence of overfitting is poor performance on the validation dataset. A more complex, overfitted function is likely to be less portable than a simple one, at one extreme, a one-variable linear regression is so portable that, if necessary, it could even be done by hand
11.
Cobra effect
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The cobra effect occurs when an attempted solution to a problem makes the problem worse. This is an instance of unintended consequences, the term is used to illustrate the causes of incorrect stimulation in economy and politics. There is also a 2001 book with the title by German economist Horst Siebert. The term cobra effect stems from a set at the time of British rule of colonial India. The British government was concerned about the number of venomous snakes in Delhi. The government therefore offered a bounty for every dead cobra, initially this was a successful strategy as large numbers of snakes were killed for the reward. Eventually, however, enterprising people began to breed cobras for the income, when the government became aware of this, the reward program was scrapped, causing the cobra breeders to set the now-worthless snakes free. As a result, the wild cobra population further increased, the apparent solution for the problem made the situation even worse. A similar incident occurred in Hanoi, Vietnam, under French colonial rule, the colonial regime created a bounty program that paid a reward for each rat killed. To obtain the bounty, people would provide the severed rat tail, colonial officials, however, began noticing rats in Hanoi with no tails. Historian Michael Vann argues that the example from British India cannot be proven
12.
ArXiv
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In many fields of mathematics and physics, almost all scientific papers are self-archived on the arXiv repository. Begun on August 14,1991, arXiv. org passed the half-million article milestone on October 3,2008, by 2014 the submission rate had grown to more than 8,000 per month. The arXiv was made possible by the low-bandwidth TeX file format, around 1990, Joanne Cohn began emailing physics preprints to colleagues as TeX files, but the number of papers being sent soon filled mailboxes to capacity. Additional modes of access were added, FTP in 1991, Gopher in 1992. The term e-print was quickly adopted to describe the articles and its original domain name was xxx. lanl. gov. Due to LANLs lack of interest in the rapidly expanding technology, in 1999 Ginsparg changed institutions to Cornell University and it is now hosted principally by Cornell, with 8 mirrors around the world. Its existence was one of the factors that led to the current movement in scientific publishing known as open access. Mathematicians and scientists regularly upload their papers to arXiv. org for worldwide access, Ginsparg was awarded a MacArthur Fellowship in 2002 for his establishment of arXiv. The annual budget for arXiv is approximately $826,000 for 2013 to 2017, funded jointly by Cornell University Library, annual donations were envisaged to vary in size between $2,300 to $4,000, based on each institution’s usage. As of 14 January 2014,174 institutions have pledged support for the period 2013–2017 on this basis, in September 2011, Cornell University Library took overall administrative and financial responsibility for arXivs operation and development. Ginsparg was quoted in the Chronicle of Higher Education as saying it was supposed to be a three-hour tour, however, Ginsparg remains on the arXiv Scientific Advisory Board and on the arXiv Physics Advisory Committee. The lists of moderators for many sections of the arXiv are publicly available, additionally, an endorsement system was introduced in 2004 as part of an effort to ensure content that is relevant and of interest to current research in the specified disciplines. Under the system, for categories that use it, an author must be endorsed by an established arXiv author before being allowed to submit papers to those categories. Endorsers are not asked to review the paper for errors, new authors from recognized academic institutions generally receive automatic endorsement, which in practice means that they do not need to deal with the endorsement system at all. However, the endorsement system has attracted criticism for allegedly restricting scientific inquiry, perelman appears content to forgo the traditional peer-reviewed journal process, stating, If anybody is interested in my way of solving the problem, its all there – let them go and read about it. The arXiv generally re-classifies these works, e. g. in General mathematics, papers can be submitted in any of several formats, including LaTeX, and PDF printed from a word processor other than TeX or LaTeX. The submission is rejected by the software if generating the final PDF file fails, if any image file is too large. ArXiv now allows one to store and modify an incomplete submission, the time stamp on the article is set when the submission is finalized
13.
ScienceDirect
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ScienceDirect is a website which provides subscription-based access to a large database of scientific and medical research. It hosts over 12 million pieces of content from 3,500 academic journals and 34,000 e-books, the journals are grouped into four main sections, Physical Sciences and Engineering, Life Sciences, Health Sciences, and Social Sciences and Humanities. Article abstracts are available, but access to their full texts generally require a subscription or pay-per-view purchase. It is operated by the Anglo-Dutch publisher Elsevier and it was launched in March 1997. List of academic databases and search engines Scopus Thomas G. De Petro, ScienceDirect Through SciVerse, A New Way To Approach Elsevier. Carol Tenopir, Peiling Wang, Yan Zhang, Beverly Simmons, academic users interactions with ScienceDirect in search tasks, Affective and cognitive behaviors. Hao-Ren Ke, Rolf Kwakkelaar, Yu-Min Tai, Li-Chun Chen, exploring behavior of E-journal users in science and technology, Transaction log analysis of Elseviers ScienceDirect OnSite in Taiwan. David Nicholas, Ian Rowlands, Paul Huntington, Hamid R. Jamali, diversity in the e-journal use and information-seeking behaviour of UK researchers
14.
PubMed Identifier
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PubMed is a free search engine accessing primarily the MEDLINE database of references and abstracts on life sciences and biomedical topics. The United States National Library of Medicine at the National Institutes of Health maintains the database as part of the Entrez system of information retrieval, from 1971 to 1997, MEDLINE online access to the MEDLARS Online computerized database primarily had been through institutional facilities, such as university libraries. PubMed, first released in January 1996, ushered in the era of private, free, home-, the PubMed system was offered free to the public in June 1997, when MEDLINE searches via the Web were demonstrated, in a ceremony, by Vice President Al Gore. Information about the journals indexed in MEDLINE, and available through PubMed, is found in the NLM Catalog. As of 5 January 2017, PubMed has more than 26.8 million records going back to 1966, selectively to the year 1865, and very selectively to 1809, about 500,000 new records are added each year. As of the date,13.1 million of PubMeds records are listed with their abstracts. In 2016, NLM changed the system so that publishers will be able to directly correct typos. Simple searches on PubMed can be carried out by entering key aspects of a subject into PubMeds search window, when a journal article is indexed, numerous article parameters are extracted and stored as structured information. Such parameters are, Article Type, Secondary identifiers, Language, publication type parameter enables many special features. As these clinical girish can generate small sets of robust studies with considerable precision, since July 2005, the MEDLINE article indexing process extracts important identifiers from the article abstract and puts those in a field called Secondary Identifier. The secondary identifier field is to store numbers to various databases of molecular sequence data, gene expression or chemical compounds. For clinical trials, PubMed extracts trial IDs for the two largest trial registries, ClinicalTrials. gov and the International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number Register, a reference which is judged particularly relevant can be marked and related articles can be identified. If relevant, several studies can be selected and related articles to all of them can be generated using the Find related data option, the related articles are then listed in order of relatedness. To create these lists of related articles, PubMed compares words from the title and abstract of each citation, as well as the MeSH headings assigned, using a powerful word-weighted algorithm. The related articles function has been judged to be so precise that some researchers suggest it can be used instead of a full search, a strong feature of PubMed is its ability to automatically link to MeSH terms and subheadings. Examples would be, bad breath links to halitosis, heart attack to myocardial infarction, where appropriate, these MeSH terms are automatically expanded, that is, include more specific terms. Terms like nursing are automatically linked to Nursing or Nursing and this important feature makes PubMed searches automatically more sensitive and avoids false-negative hits by compensating for the diversity of medical terminology. The My NCBI area can be accessed from any computer with web-access, an earlier version of My NCBI was called PubMed Cubby
15.
Unintended consequences
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In the social sciences, unintended consequences are outcomes that are not the ones foreseen and intended by a purposeful action. The term was popularised in the century by American sociologist Robert K. Merton. Unintended consequences can be grouped into three types, Unexpected benefit, A positive unexpected benefit, Unexpected drawback, An unexpected detriment occurring in addition to the desired effect of the policy. Perverse result, A perverse effect contrary to what was originally intended and this is sometimes referred to as backfire. The idea of unintended consequences dates back at least to John Locke who discussed the consequences of interest rate regulation in his letter to Sir John Somers. The idea was discussed by Adam Smith, the Scottish Enlightenment. However, it was the sociologist Robert K. Merton who popularized this concept in the twentieth century and he emphasized that his term purposive action. Concerned with conduct as distinct from behavior and that is, with action that involves motives and consequently a choice between various alternatives. Mertons usage included deviations from what Max Weber defined as social action, instrumentally rational. Merton also stated that no blanket statement categorically affirming or denying the practical feasibility of all social planning is warranted, akin to Murphys law, it is commonly used as a wry or humorous warning against the hubristic belief that humans can fully control the world around them. As a sub-component of complexity, the nature of the universe—and especially its quality of having small. Likewise the creation of no-mans lands during the Cold War, in such as the border between Eastern and Western Europe, and the Korean Demilitarized Zone, has led to large natural habitats. The sinking of ships in shallow waters during wartime has created many artificial coral reefs, in medicine, most drugs have unintended consequences associated with their use. For instance, aspirin, a reliever, is also an anticoagulant that can help prevent heart attacks and reduce the severity. The existence of beneficial side effects also leads to off-label use—prescription or use of a drug for an unlicensed purpose, famously, the drug Viagra was developed to lower blood pressure, with its main current use being discovered as a side effect in clinical trials. The implementation of a profanity filter by AOL in 1996 had the consequence of blocking residents of Scunthorpe, North Lincolnshire. The accidental censorship of innocent language, known as the Scunthorpe problem, has been repeated, in 1990, the Australian state of Victoria made safety helmets mandatory for all bicycle riders. The risk of death and serious injury per cyclist seems to have increased, research by Vulcan, et al. found that the reduction in juvenile cyclists was because the youths considered wearing a bicycle helmet unfashionable
16.
Abilene paradox
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In the Abilene paradox, a group of people collectively decide on a course of action that is counter to the preferences of many of the individuals in the group. It involves a common breakdown of communication in which each member mistakenly believes that their own preferences are counter to the groups and, therefore. A common phrase relating to the Abilene Paradox is a not to rock the boat. This differs from groupthink in that the Abilene paradox is characterized by an inability to manage agreement, the term was introduced by management expert Jerry B. Harvey in his 1974 article The Abilene Paradox, The Management of Agreement. The wife says, Sounds like a great idea, the husband, despite having reservations because the drive is long and hot, thinks that his preferences must be out-of-step with the group and says, Sounds good to me. I just hope your mother wants to go, the mother-in-law then says, Of course I want to go. I havent been to Abilene in a long time, the drive is hot, dusty, and long. When they arrive at the cafeteria, the food is as bad as the drive and they arrive back home four hours later, exhausted. One of them says, It was a great trip. The mother-in-law says that, actually, she would rather have stayed home, the husband says, I wasnt delighted to be doing what we were doing. I only went to satisfy the rest of you, the wife says, I just went along to keep you happy. I would have had to be crazy to want to go out in the heat like that, the father-in-law then says that he only suggested it because he thought the others might be bored. The group sits back, perplexed that they decided to take a trip which none of them wanted. They each would have preferred to sit comfortably, but did not admit to it when they still had time to enjoy the afternoon. According to Sims, in the Abilene paradox, the individuals acting contrary to their own wishes are more likely to have feelings about the outcome. In Sims view, groupthink is a phenomenon affecting clarity of thought. The phenomenon is explained by social psychology theories of social conformity and social influence, according to Harvey, the phenomenon may occur when individuals experience action-anxiety—stress concerning the group potentially expressing negative attitudes towards them if they do not go along. The individual may experience separation anxiety, fearing exclusion from the group, the theory is often used to help explain extremely poor group decisions, especially notions of the superiority of rule by committee
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