Predicting the timing of peak oil involves estimation of future production from existing oil fields as well as future discoveries. The initial production model was Hubbert peak theory, first proposed
36 estimates made in 2005 of the year of peak world oil production (US EIA)
Monthly world oil supply data from 1995 to 2008. Supply is defined as crude oil production (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, other liquids, including biofuels, and refinery processing gains.
Peak world oil scenarios by the US Energy Information Administration (2004)
Oil and gas reserves and resource quantification refers to the process of estimating the quantities of hydrocarbons present in subsurface accumulations and assessing the portion that can be economical
Flaring a flow test, the first outward indication of a new oil or gas discovery, which has the potential to qualify for reserves assessment
An oil well in Canada
Schematic graph illustrating petroleum volumes and probabilities. Curves represent categories of oil in assessment. There is a 95% chance i.e., probability, (P95 and often referred to in the industry as F95) of at least volume V1 of economically recoverable oil, and there is a 5% chance (P05 or F05) of at least volume V2 of economically recoverable oil.
Example of a production decline curve for an individual well