Thomas Bayes

Thomas Bayes was an English statistician and Presbyterian minister, known for formulating a specific case of the theorem that bears his name: Bayes' theorem. Bayes never published. Thomas Bayes was the son of London Presbyterian minister Joshua Bayes, was born in Hertfordshire, he came from a prominent nonconformist family from Sheffield. In 1719, he enrolled at the University of Edinburgh to study theology. On his return around 1722, he assisted his father at the latter's chapel in London before moving to Tunbridge Wells, around 1734. There he was minister of the Mount Sion chapel, until 1752, he is known to have published two works in his lifetime, one theological and one mathematical: Divine Benevolence, or an Attempt to Prove That the Principal End of the Divine Providence and Government is the Happiness of His Creatures An Introduction to the Doctrine of Fluxions, a Defence of the Mathematicians Against the Objections of the Author of The Analyst, in which he defended the logical foundation of Isaac Newton's calculus against the criticism of George Berkeley, author of The AnalystIt is speculated that Bayes was elected as a Fellow of the Royal Society in 1742 on the strength of the Introduction to the Doctrine of Fluxions, as he is not known to have published any other mathematical works during his lifetime.

In his years he took a deep interest in probability. Professor Stephen Stigler, historian of statistical science, thinks that Bayes became interested in the subject while reviewing a work written in 1755 by Thomas Simpson, but George Alfred Barnard thinks he learned mathematics and probability from a book by Abraham de Moivre. Others speculate he was motivated to rebut David Hume's argument against believing in miracles on the evidence of testimony in An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding, his work and findings on probability theory were passed in manuscript form to his friend Richard Price after his death. By 1755 he by 1761 had died in Tunbridge Wells, he was buried in Bunhill Fields burial ground in Moorgate, where many nonconformists lie. Bayes's solution to a problem of inverse probability was presented in "An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances", read to the Royal Society in 1763 after Bayes's death. Richard Price shepherded the work through this presentation and its publication in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London the following year.

This was an argument for using a uniform prior distribution for a binomial parameter and not a general postulate. This essay gives the following theorem. Suppose a quantity R is uniformly distributed between 0 and 1. Suppose each of X1... Xn is equal to either 1 or 0 and the conditional probability that any of them is equal to 1, given the value of R, is R. Suppose they are conditionally independent given the value of R; the conditional probability distribution of R, given the values of X1... Xn, is! S!! R S n − S d r for 0 ≤ r ≤ 1, where S = X 1 + ⋯ + X n. Thus, for example, Pr =! S!! ∫ 0 r 0 r S n − S d r. This is a special case of Bayes' theorem. In the first decades of the eighteenth century, many problems concerning the probability of certain events, given specified conditions, were solved. For example: given a specified number of white and black balls in an urn, what is the probability of drawing a black ball? Or the converse: given that one or more balls has been drawn, what can be said about the number of white and black balls in the urn?

These are sometimes called "inverse probability" problems. Bayes's "Essay" contains his solution to a similar problem posed by Abraham de Moivre, author of The Doctrine of Chances. In addition, a paper by Bayes on asymptotic series was published posthumously. Bayesian probability is the name given to several related interpretations of probability as an amount of epistemic confidence – the strength of beliefs, hypotheses etc. – rather than a frequency. This allows the application of probability to all sorts of propositions rather than just ones that come with a reference class. "Bayesian" has been used in this sense since about 1950. Since its rebirth in the 1950s, advancements in computing technology have allowed scientists from many disciplines to pair traditional Baye

Covered Wagon Raid

Covered Wagon Raid is a 1950 American Western film directed by R. G. Springsteen and written by M. Coates Webster; the film stars Eddy Waller, Alex Gerry, Lyn Thomas, Byron Barr and Dick Curtis. The film was released on June 1950, by Republic Pictures. A prospective settler, pioneer Bob Davis, is gunned down by hired guns Grif and Brag, who work for saloonkeeper and prospective land baron Harvey "Deacon" Grimes; the killing is witnessed by insurance investigator Rocky Lane, who decides to go undercover and help the dead man's daughter, Susie. Rancher's daughter Gail Warren gets acquainted with Rocky, but inadvertently reveals his true identity to Grimes and his men. Rocky is able to prevail and leaves town, promising to come back. Allan Lane as Rocky Lane Eddy Waller as Nugget Clark Alex Gerry as Deacon Harvey Grimes Lyn Thomas as Gail Warren Byron Barr as Roy Chandler Dick Curtis as Henchman Grif Pierce Lyden as Henchman Brag Sherry Jackson as Susie Davis Rex Lease as Bob Davis Lester Dorr as Bartender Pete Lee Roberts as Henchman Steve Black Jack as Black Jack Covered Wagon Raid on IMDb

List of University of Pittsburgh alumni

This list of University of Pittsburgh alumni includes notable graduates, non-graduate former students, current students of the University of Pittsburgh, a state-related research university located in Pittsburgh, United States. Alaska Thunderfuck – drag performer, winner of RuPaul's Drag Race: All Stars Dilruba Ahmed - Bangladeshi Poet and Author Geri Allenjazz composer and pianist Hervey Allen – author, best known for Anthony Adverse Joseph Bathanti – poet, professor. Mark Bulwinkle – graphic artist and sculptor Michael Chabon – 2001 Pulitzer Prize-winning author of a number of books set in Pittsburgh Murray Chass – award-winning baseball journalist for The New York Times Bill Cullen – host of many television game shows Stephen Dau – writer Jim Donovan – professional drummer and percussionist, best known as the former drummer and one of the founding members of the band Rusted Root Morton Fine - screenwriter/producer, winner of the Writers Guild of America Award for The Pawnbroker Sharon G. Flake – award-winning author of young adult literature Jack Gilbert – award-winning poet Lester Goran – author Gabbie HannaYouTuber, singer-songwriter, author, & Internet personality Ernie Hawkinsblues guitarist and singer Terrance Hayes – poet whose books have won National Book Award for Poetry and National Poetry Series Samuel John Hazonovelist, first poet laureate of Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Paul Hertneky – writer Frederick A. Hetzel – University Press publisher Eddie Ifft – stand-up comedian, athlete John Irving – author, The Cider House Rules, The World According to Garp Nicole JohnsonMiss America 1999 and diabetes advocate Gene Kelly – Academy Award-winning dancer, singer, film director and choreographer best known for performance in Singin' in the Rain Chris KuzneskiNew York Times best-selling author Jeanne Marie Laskas – award-winning columnist and author Lorin Maazelconductor and composer, New York Philharmonic Herb Magidsonlyricist, won first Academy Award for Best Original Song, in 1934 Kellee Maize – musician and hip-hop artist Allison McAtee – actress, model, CSI: Miami, Hell Ride, Bloomington Bebe Moore Campbell – author and journalist Jenna Morasca – actress and winner of Survivor: The Amazon Thaddeus Mosley – sculptor who works in wood Ethelbert Nevin – pianist and composer, left school after one year David Newell – actor, Mr. McFeely on Mister Rogers' Neighborhood Beth Ostrosky – model and wife of Howard Stern Barbara Paul – writer Ed Roberson – award-winning poet Leo Robin – composer and songwriter Fred Rogers – host of Mister Rogers' Neighborhood Zelda Rubinstein – actress best known for Poltergeist, earned bachelor's degree in bacteriology Neal Russosportswriter for St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Sporting News and Sports Illustrated Justin Sane – singer, guitarist of punk band Anti-Flag Gerald Stern – National Book Award-winning poet Bill Strickland – founder of Manchester Craftsmen's Guild, an agency that inspires teenagers through the arts.