The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the belief that, if an event has occurred more frequently than expected, it is less likely to happen again in the future. The fallacy is commonly associated with gambling, where it may be believed, for example, that the next dice roll is more than usually likely to be six because there have recently been fewer than the expected number of sixes.
The effect of gambler's fallacy on lottery selections, based on studies by Dek Terrell. After winning numbers are drawn, lottery players respond by reducing the number of times they select those numbers in following draws. This effect slowly corrects over time, as players become less affected by the fallacy.
Gambling is the wagering of something of value on a random event with the intent of winning something else of value, where instances of strategy are discounted. Gambling thus requires three elements to be present: consideration, risk (chance), and a prize. The outcome of the wager is often immediate, such as a single roll of dice, a spin of a roulette wheel, or a horse crossing the finish line, but longer time frames are also common, allowing wagers on the outcome of a future sports contest or even an entire sports season.
Caravaggio, The Cardsharps (c. 1594), depicting card sharps.
Gamblers in the Ship of Fools, 1494
"Players and courtesans under a tent" by Cornelis de Vos
Max Kaur and religious leaders protest against gambling, Tallinn, Estonia.