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Heuristic (psychology)
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Heuristics is the process by which humans use mental shortcuts to arrive at decisions. Heuristics are simple strategies that humans, animals, organizations, and even machines use to quickly form judgments, make decisions, and find solutions to complex problems. Often this involves focusing on the most relevant aspects of a problem or situation to formulate a solution. While heuristic processes are used to find the answers and solutions that are most likely to work or be correct, they are not always right or the most accurate. Judgments and decisions based on heuristics are simply good enough to satisfy a pressing need in situations of uncertainty, where information is incomplete. In that sense they can differ from answers given by logic and probability.
Figure 1: Screening for HIV in the general public follows the logic of a fast-and-frugal tree. If the first enzyme immunoassay (ELISA) is negative, th
Figure 1: Screening for HIV in the general public follows the logic of a fast-and-frugal tree. If the first enzyme immunoassay (ELISA) is negative, the diagnosis is "no HIV." If not, a second ELISA is performed; if it is negative, the diagnosis is "no HIV." Otherwise, a Western blot test is performed, which determines the final classification.
The amount of money people will pay in an auction for a bottle of wine can be influenced by considering an arbitrary two-digit number.
The amount of money people will pay in an auction for a bottle of wine can be influenced by considering an arbitrary two-digit number.
A visual example of attribute substitution. This illusion works because the 2D size of parts of the scene is judged on the basis of 3D (perspective) s
A visual example of attribute substitution. This illusion works because the 2D size of parts of the scene is judged on the basis of 3D (perspective) size, which is rapidly calculated by the visual system.
Probability
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Probability is the branch of mathematics concerning events and numerical descriptions of how likely they are to occur. The probability of an event is a number between 0 and 1; the larger the probability, the more likely an event is to occur. A simple example is the tossing of a fair (unbiased) coin. Since the coin is fair, the two outcomes are both equally probable; the probability of "heads" equals the probability of "tails"; and since no other outcomes are possible, the probability of either "heads" or "tails" is 1/2.
Gerolamo Cardano (16th century)
Gerolamo Cardano (16th century)
Christiaan Huygens published one of the first books on probability (17th century).
Christiaan Huygens published one of the first books on probability (17th century).
Carl Friedrich Gauss
Carl Friedrich Gauss
Events A and B depicted as independent vs non-independent in space Ω.
Events A and B depicted as independent vs non-independent in space Ω.